Idoneidad de hábitat para Swietenia macrophylla en escenarios de cambio climático en México

Ramírez-Magil, Gregorio; Botello, Francisco; Navarro-Martínez, Angélica

doi:10.21829/myb.2020.2631954

Cited by 3 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The states with the highest proportion of suitable areas were Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatán. These areas reported by our models are similar to those predicted by models developed in previous research in Mexico and the province of Yucatán [82,83,167].…”

Section: Current Potential Distribution Of Mahoganysupporting

confidence: 90%

“…These findings are consistent with the known distribution ranges previously described for the species [17,99,100]. Mexico has been one of the countries with the largest number of investigations focused on understanding the distribution patterns of Mahogany [82,83,[166][167][168]. This is mainly related to the more significant number of occurrence records for the species in this country.…”

Section: Current Potential Distribution Of Mahoganysupporting

confidence: 89%

“…This is due to the fact that they are susceptible to the configurations and parameterizations used [142]. Previous studies conducted about Mahogany use the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) as the only algorithm to carry out the modelling of the species [29,[82][83][84][85]. We imply that this selection may be based mainly on the fact that Maxent is one of the algorithms most explored and used in the existing literature [143].…”

Section: Predictive Performance and Strengths Of The Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among all the investigations previously conducted for the species considering the use of SDMs in Mexico and Brazil [29,[82][83][84][85], the current study stands out for being the first to perform an intersection analysis between the predicted areas under current and future conditions and the PA network. This analysis was performed in order to identify areas where the species could be protected under immediate short-term and long-term conservation statuses, as this could be one of the best in situ conservation strategies [139].…”

Section: Representativeness Of the Potential Distribution Of Mahogany...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have attempted to model the potential geographic distribution of Mahogany in Mexico [29,82,83] and Brazil [84,85]. However, in these countries, only a partial fraction of the climatic niche of the species was considered (only the presence records for the species in one country).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

Torres

López-Tobar

Tipán-Torres

et al. 2023

Forests

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Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) is a species with great economic interest worldwide and is classified as vulnerable to extinction by the IUCN. Deforestation and climate change are the main hazards to this species. Therefore, it is vital to describe possible changes in distribution patterns under current and future climatic conditions, as they are important for their monitoring, conservation, and use. In the current study, we predict, for the very first time, the potential distribution of Mahogany based on data that reflect the total distribution of the species, climatic and edaphic variables, and a consensus model that combines the results of three statistical techniques. The obtained model was projected to future climatic conditions considering two general circulation models (GCM), under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2070. Predictions under current climatic conditions indicated wide adequate areas in Central American countries such as Mexico and demonstrated a coverage of up to 28.5% within the limits of the protected areas. Under future scenarios, drastic reductions were observed in different regions, particularly in Venezuela, Perú, and Ecuador, with losses of up to 56.0%. On the other hand, an increase in suitable areas for the species within protected areas was also detected. The results of this study are certainly useful for identifying currently unrecorded populations of Mahogany, as well as for identifying locations that are likely to be suitable both now and in the future for conservation management planning. The methodology proposed in this work is able to be used for other forest species in tropical zones as a tool for conducting dynamic conservation and restoration strategies that consider the effects of climate change.

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Section: Current Potential Distribution Of Mahoganysupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Current Potential Distribution Of Mahoganysupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Predictive Performance and Strengths Of The Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Representativeness Of the Potential Distribution Of Mahogany...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

Torres

López-Tobar

Tipán-Torres

et al. 2023

Forests

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Climate change favors expansion of three Eucalyptus species in China

Mao,

Zheng,

Luo

et al. 2024

Front. Plant Sci.

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Eucalyptus has become one of the most widely planted species in tropical and subtropical regions in China, with important economic, ecological, and social values. However, it is currently unclear how climate change will affect different Eucalyptus species. Therefore, it is urgent to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Eucalyptus under current and future climate scenarios. In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution patterns of the three main Eucalyptus species (Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus urophylla, and Eucalyptus tereticornis) under current and future climatic conditions (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) using the optimized MaxEnt model, which integrates a variety of environmental data including climate, topography, soil, and human influence. We also identified the main factors affecting the potential distributions of the three main Eucalyptus species. The model indicated that E. grandis exhibited heightened sensitivity to the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (7.0-20.0 °C) and annual mean temperature (11.9-24.2 °C), whereas E. urophylla displayed heightened sensitivity to precipitation of the warmest quarter (272-1694 mm) and annual precipitation (812-2624 mm). Conversely, E. tereticornis demonstrated heightened sensitivity to annual mean temperature (12.7-24.5 °C) and temperature seasonality (63.8-598.9). Under the current climate, E. tereticornis had the widest suitable distribution area (124.91 × 104 km²), followed by E. grandis (124.89 × 104 km²) and E. urophylla (119.81 × 104 km²). Under future climate change scenarios, the suitable ranges of E. grandis, E. urophylla and E. tereticornis will continue to expand. This study highlights the importance of climate change in Eucalyptus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Eucalyptus species under current and future climate conditions in China. This research offers valuable scientific insights pertinent to the management and rational site selection for Eucalyptus plantations.

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Tendencias mundiales en el modelado de la distribución de especies arbóreas

Pozo-Gómez,

Orantes-García,

Sánchez-Cortés

et al. 2023

Rev Cha Se Cie For y del Amb

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Introducción: En los últimos años se ha generalizado el uso de modelos de distribución de especies, una técnica que permite estudiar la distribución de organismos en un espacio determinado.Objetivos: Analizar las tendencias mundiales de estudio de los modelos de distribución de especies arbóreas en el periodo 1990-2022, a través de la revisión de literatura científica.Materiales y métodos: Se analizaron 250 estudios publicados en 233 artículos científicos, 10 capítulos de libros y siete tesis, que se consultaron en bases de datos especializadas.Resultados y discusión: Los variables de estudio en las investigaciones se analizaron mediante análisis correlativos en 78.4 % de los casos. En 48 países, el número de investigaciones aumentó durante la última década; China fue el país con más estudios (21.7 %). El análisis incluyó un total de 36 familias, 69 géneros y 163 especies; Pinus pinceana (2.8 %) ha sido la más estudiada. El modelo/algoritmo más utilizado para el análisis de los modelos de distribución de especies fue MaxEnt (72.8 %) y, finalmente, las variables utilizadas fueron 65, donde la de mayor uso fue la precipitación (4.8 %).Conclusiones: Los modelos de distribución de especies arbóreas deben considerarse una herramienta útil para la previsión de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático. El rendimiento del modelado dependerá de la técnica empleada, así como de su interpretación, la cual debe hacerse en función de la especie y su hábitat.

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Idoneidad de hábitat para Swietenia macrophylla en escenarios de cambio climático en México

Cited by 3 publications

References 35 publications

Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

Modelling Climatically Suitable Areas for Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla King) and Their Shifts across Neotropics: The Role of Protected Areas

Climate change favors expansion of three Eucalyptus species in China

Tendencias mundiales en el modelado de la distribución de especies arbóreas

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