If cannons cannot fight hail, what else?

Wieringa, J.W.; Holleman, Iwan

doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0147

Cited by 29 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…According to Lorenz (1966), the predictability of an atmospheric phenomenon depends strongly on its lifetime. In particular, the lifetime of thunderstorm cells that are not organized in large‐scale structures is very short and therefore the predictability decreases rapidly during the first 30 min (Wilson et al , 1998; Wieringa and Holleman 2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting severe convection in the Alpine region: the COALITION approach

Nisi

Ambrosetti

Clementi

2013

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The purpose of the operationally oriented system named the Context and Scale Oriented Thunderstorm Satellite Predictors Development (COALITION) is automatically to detect severe thunderstorms early in their development and consequently help weather forecasters to increase lead times when issuing severe weather warnings. This new object‐oriented system integrates data provided by different sources. Data from the Meteosat Second Generation Rapid Scan Service, weather radar and numerical weather prediction, as well as climatology, are utilized by the system. One of its primary purposes is to use all the best operationally available information about convective processes and to integrate it into a heuristic model. Furthermore the orographic forcing, which is often neglected in heuristic nowcasting models, is taken into account and included in the system as an additional convective triggering mechanism. This is particularly important for areas characterized by complex orography like the Alpine region. The COALITION algorithm merges evolving thunderstorm properties with selected predictors. The forecast evolution of the storm is the result of the interaction between convective signatures and surrounding storm environment. Eight different ‘object‐environment’ interactions are analyzed in eight modules, providing ensemble nowcasts of thunderstorm attributes (satellite‐ and radar‐based) for the following 60 min. All ensemble nowcasts are then combined through a weighting and thresholding scheme and the results are summarized into a single graphical map in order to facilitate user interpretation. The COALITION nowcast system has an update frequency of 5 min. The output highlights the cells having a high probability of severe thunderstorm development within the next 30 min. Verification statistics confirm that COALITION is able to nowcast the intensity of developing convective cells with sufficient skill up to a lead time of about 20 min.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting severe convection in the Alpine region: the COALITION approach

Nisi

Ambrosetti

Clementi

2013

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…Federer et al, ; Knight et al, ), these hopes faded, though research toward the goal of hail suppression has persisted both regionally and in many parts of the globe (e.g. Cazac et al, ; Dessens et al, ; Farley et al, ; Gavrilov et al, ; Makitov et al, ; Wieringa & Holleman, ). Further details on these efforts can be found in Wieringa and Holleman () and Dessens et al ().…”

Section: Hailstone Ingredients Microphysics Physical Characteristicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cazac et al, ; Dessens et al, ; Farley et al, ; Gavrilov et al, ; Makitov et al, ; Wieringa & Holleman, ). Further details on these efforts can be found in Wieringa and Holleman () and Dessens et al (). For prolific hail‐producing storms such as supercells, simple physical and practical arguments suggest seeding would likely have a negligible impact on hail production.…”

Section: Hailstone Ingredients Microphysics Physical Characteristicmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding Hail in the Earth System

Allen

Giammanco

Kumjian

et al. 2020

Reviews of Geophysics

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The processes leading to the development of hail and the distribution of these events worldwide are reviewed. Microphysical and physical characteristics of hail development are described to provide context of the notable gaps in our understanding of what drives hail to grow large, or what determines how it falls to the ground. Distributional characteristics of hail are explored, utilizing both surface observations of hailstones and remotely sensed observational data sets to identify opportunities and needs for new observations. These observational deficiencies contribute to our limited capacity to both forecast hail or its expected size and reduce the effectiveness of using favorable conditions for hail development as a proxy to frequency where observations are unavailable. Given the substantive influences of both climate variability and the changing Earth system on hail, the latest understanding of their contributions to risk are addressed. Applying this understanding of the distribution and physical characteristics of hail, the damage by hail to agriculture and insured property is assessed. Much remains unknown about the processes leading to hail growth and environmental controls on hail occurrence, size, and magnitude, particularly outside of the United States and Europe. A better understanding of the global occurrence of hail is also needed to better anticipate the hazard and associated impacts.

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“…Amorphous organic aerosols, such as citric acid, levoglucosan and raffinose (Murray et al, 2010;Wagner et al, 2012;Wilson et al, 2012), secondary organic aerosols (Wang et al, 2012;Ladino et al, 2013); and crystalline particles, such as ammonium sulfate (Abbatt et al, 2006) or hydrated sodium chloride (Wise et al, 2012) may also serve as IN. Artificial particles such as silver iodide (AgI) have been used in the laboratory and in cloud seeding studies (Wieringa and Holleman, 2006) because they were found to be efficient IN. Diehl and Mitra (1998), Gorbunov et al (2001) and Möhler et al (2005) found that soot particles can also act as IN, whereas other studies suggest that this is not always the case (DeMott et al, 1999;Dymarska et al, 2006;Friedman et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contact freezing: a review of experimental studies

2013

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Abstract. This manuscript compiles both theoretical and experimental information on contact freezing with the aim to better understand this potentially important but still not well quantified heterogeneous freezing mode. There is no complete theory that describes contact freezing and how the energy barrier has to be overcome to nucleate an ice crystal by contact freezing. Experiments on contact freezing conducted using the cold plate technique indicate that it can initiate ice formation at warmer temperatures than immersion freezing. Additionally, a qualitative difference in the freezing temperatures between contact and immersion freezing has been found using different instrumentation and different ice nuclei. There is a lack of data on collision rates in most of the reported data, which inhibits a quantitative calculation of the freezing efficiencies. Thus, new or modified instrumentation to study contact nucleation in the laboratory and in the field are needed to identify the conditions at which contact nucleation could occur in the atmosphere. Important questions concerning contact freezing and its potential role for ice cloud formation and climate are also summarized.

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If cannons cannot fight hail, what else?

Cited by 29 publications

References 37 publications

Nowcasting severe convection in the Alpine region: the COALITION approach

Nowcasting severe convection in the Alpine region: the COALITION approach

Understanding Hail in the Earth System

Contact freezing: a review of experimental studies

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