“If only I had taken the other road...”: Regret, risk and reinforced learning in informed route-choice

Ben-Elia, Eran; Ishaq, Robert; Shiftan, Yoram

doi:10.1007/s11116-012-9426-5

Cited by 37 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Prospect Theory has been extended through integration with reinforced learning approaches, demonstrating how decisions relating to travel time uncertainty change as individuals extend their experience of the environment or are provided with real-time information (BenElia and Shiftan, 2010). Others have explored how route knowledge influences choices and attitudes to risk, finding that experienced individuals are more sensitive to travel time variability (Ben-Elia et al, 2013). Similarly, Chorus and colleagues introduced the notion of regret minimisation, reflecting how individuals aim to minimise their exposure to negative emotions, rather than primarily aiming to maximise utility during route choice (Chorus et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London

Manley

Addison

Cheng

2015

Journal of Transport Geography

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a b s t r a c tUnderstanding and modelling route choice behaviour is central to predicting the formation and propagation of urban road congestion. Yet within conventional literature disagreements persist around the nature of route choice behaviour, and how it should be modelled. In this paper, both the shortest path and anchor-based perspectives on route choice behaviour are explored through an empirical analysis of nearly 700,000 minicab routes across London, United Kingdom. In the first set of analyses, the degree of similarity between observed routes and possible shortest paths is established. Shortest paths demonstrate poor performance in predicting both observed route choice and characteristics. The second stage of analysis explores the influence of specific urban features, named anchors, in route choice. These analyses show that certain features attract more route choices than would be expected were individuals choosing route based on cost minimisation alone. Instead, the results indicate that major urban features form the basis of route choice planning -being selected disproportionately more often, and causing asymmetry in route choice volumes by direction of travel. At a finer scale, decisions made at minor road features are furthermore demonstrated to influence routing patterns. The results indicate a need to revisit the basis of how routes are modelled, shifting from the shortest path perspective to a mechanism structured around urban features. In concluding, the main trends are synthesised within an initial framework for route choice modelling, and presents potential extensions of this research.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London

Manley

Addison

Cheng

2015

Journal of Transport Geography

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“…Also consistently, research in network route choices with exogenous uncertainties has found that anticipated regret plays an important role in those choices (e.g., Ben‐Elia et al. , Chorus et al. ). The parameter λ 0 represents inertia with respect to the actual route choice in round t over and above payoff considerations.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Route vs. Segment: An Experiment on Real‐Time Travel Information in Congestible Networks

Mak

Gisches

Rapoport

2015

Production and Operations Management

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We report the results of an experimental study of route choice in congestible networks with a common origin and common destination. In one condition, in each round of play network users independently committed themselves at the origin to a three‐segment route; in the other condition, they chose route segments sequentially at each network junction upon receiving en route information. At the end of each round, players received ex‐post complete information about the distribution of the route choices. Although the complexity of the network defies analysis by common users, traffic patterns in both conditions converged rapidly to the equilibrium solution. We account for the observed results by a Markov adaptive learning model postulating regret minimization and inertia. We find that subjects' learning behavior was similar across conditions, except that they exhibited more inertia in the condition with en route information.

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“…Formulated as an alternative to expected utility theory and prospect theory, regret theory (Bell, 1982;Loomes & Sugden, 1982) is a powerful and prominent decision theory that not only takes the expected payoff but also the possibility of regretting not choosing the alternative option into account. The application of regret theory in the field of transport has been very modest however, but is receiving increasing attention, for example in the route choice literature (Ben-Elia, Ishaq, & Shiftan, 2012;Chorus, 2012;see Rasouli & Timmermans, 2014, for an overview). Regret theory assumes that in cases of outcome uncertainty decision-makers anticipate the associated regret (the negative emotion felt when learning that the outcome of the rejected option is more favourable) with each available choice option and postulates that decision-makers are regret averse, that is, try to avoid options with a larger possibility of regret.…”

Section: Regret Aversionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tradable credits for managing car travel: a review of empirical research and relevant behavioural approaches

2016

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Recently, there has been a surge of interest in Tradable Credits (TC) as an alternative measure to manage the growth of personal car use. This paper summarises the results and methodologies of studies that have sought to anticipate the behavioural responses to several proposed TC schemes that target personal travel. In a critical reflection on this work and in an attempt to inspire future research, we argue that future empirical studies on TC behaviours can greatly benefit from insights from the fields of behavioural economics and cognitive psychology. Therefore, in the second part of the paper, we bring together behavioural concepts from these fields that are relevant in a TC decision-making context. Based on observations from current TC studies and the behavioural mechanisms identified in the second part of the paper, we propose promising directions for future research on understanding the impact of TC on personal car travel. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“If only I had taken the other road...”: Regret, risk and reinforced learning in informed route-choice

Cited by 37 publications

References 51 publications

Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London

Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London

Route vs. Segment: An Experiment on Real‐Time Travel Information in Congestible Networks

Tradable credits for managing car travel: a review of empirical research and relevant behavioural approaches

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