If or when? Uncertainty's role in anxious anticipation

Abstract

Uncertainty is often associated with subjective distress and a potentiated anxiety response. Occurrence uncertainty, or the inability to predict if a threat will occur, has rarely been compared experimentally with temporal uncertainty, or the inability to predict when a threat will occur. The current study aimed to (a) directly compare the anxiogenic effects of anticipating these two types of uncertain threat, as indexed by the eyeblink startle response, and (b) assess the relationship between startle response to occurrence and temporal uncertainty and individual differences in self-reported intolerance of uncertainty and anxiety. The findings indicated that anticipation during occurrence uncertainty elicited a larger startle response than anticipating a certain threat, but anticipation during temporal uncertainty was superior at potentiating startle blink overall. Additional analyses of the effects of order and habituation further highlighted temporal uncertainty's superiority in eliciting greater startle responding. This suggests that, while uncertainty is physiologically anxiety provoking, some level of certainty that the threat will occur enhances the robustness of the physiological anxiety response. However, self-reported anxiety was equivalent for temporal and occurrence uncertainty, suggesting that, while defensive responding may be more affected by temporal uncertainty, people perceive both types of uncertainty as anxiogenic. Individual differences in the intolerance of uncertainty and other anxiety measures were not related to anticipatory startle responsivity during any of the conditions.

What do I do now? Intolerance of uncertainty is associated with discrete patterns of anticipatory physiological responding to different uncertain contexts

“…Importantly, the observed STAI-related effects on corrugator supercilii activity during the basic threat uncertainty task were specific to STAI, over IU. Although these results were not expected, the results aren't surprising given the lack of reported IU effects on physiological measures during these type of tasks (Bennett et al, 2018;Grupe & Nitschke, 2011). There may be multiple reasons for this result: (1) the task is not that uncertain given the known contingencies and therefore is not as motivationally relevant to individuals who score high in IU, and (2) the task presents many different types of negative images, tapping into broader negative affective states i.e.…”

“…The evidence for the role of IU on basic threat uncertainty is mixed (Bennett, Dickmann, & Larson, 2018;Gole, Schäfer, & Schienle, 2012;Grupe & Nitschke, 2011;Schienle, Köchel, Ebner, Reishofer, & Schäfer, 2010;Somerville et al, 2013).…”

“…During these tasks, individuals high in IU, relative to low IU have been shown to exhibit heightened amygdala activity to cues conveying uncertainty (Schienle et al, 2010) and to aversive pictures following unpredictable countdowns (Somerville et al, 2013). However, for these basic uncertainty tasks there is a paucity of significant (Bennett et al, 2018;Grupe & Nitschke, 2011).…”

Bed nucleus of the stria terminalis regulates fear to unpredictable threat signals

“…Unpredictable threats come in many forms [including uncertain timing, magnitude or type, 340 or probability of threat: (Bennett et al, 2018;Daldrup et al, 2015;Davies and Craske, 2015;341 McHugh et al, 2015;McNally et al, 2011;Schroijen et al, 2016;Seidenbecher et al, 2016)]; 342 these subtypes of uncertainty may have dissociable and cumulative contributions to anxiety. In 343 particular, uncertainty about the timing of the onset of aversive events has been linked to measures 344 of anxiety in humans and other animals (Amadi et al, 2017;Bennett et al, 2018;Shankman et al, 345 2011).…”

“…Unpredictable threats come in many forms [including uncertain timing, magnitude or type, 340 or probability of threat: (Bennett et al, 2018;Daldrup et al, 2015;Davies and Craske, 2015;341 McHugh et al, 2015;McNally et al, 2011;Schroijen et al, 2016;Seidenbecher et al, 2016)]; 342 these subtypes of uncertainty may have dissociable and cumulative contributions to anxiety. In 343 particular, uncertainty about the timing of the onset of aversive events has been linked to measures 344 of anxiety in humans and other animals (Amadi et al, 2017;Bennett et al, 2018;Shankman et al, 345 2011). Interestingly, ambiguous threats (of varying types and degrees) are associated with 346 increases or changes in regional cerebral blood flow and functional connectivity in the primate 347 BNST (Alvarez et al, 2015(Alvarez et al, , 2011Brinkmann et al, 2018;Leonie 348 Brinkmann et al, 2017;Buff et al, 2017;Choi et al, 2014Choi et al, , 2012Coaster et al, 2011;Fox et al, 349 2018;Grupe et al, 2013;Herrmann et al, 2016;Kalin et al, 2008, Klumpers et al, 2017, 350 2015McMenamin et al, 2014;Meyer et al, 2018;Mobbs et al, 2010;Münsterkötter et al, 2015;351 Naaz et al, 2019;Pedersen et al, 2018Pedersen et al, , 2017Schlund et al, 2013;Sladky et al, 2018;…”