If the face fits: predicting future promotions from police cadets’ facial traits

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the relationship between police cadets' facial traits and their subsequent promotional success.Methods: Using archival police academy photographs, we use a two-phase experiment to evaluate the impact of facial traits on future promotional success. First, respondents (n=507) view randomly selected photographs of cadets (observations=15,669) and evaluate them for facial traits and perceived leadership ability. Second, respondents are presented with random dyads of differentially promoted recruits, and choose one based on the highest perceived leadership ability. We compare those leadership evaluations to the subsequent promotional success of the cadets featured in the photographs (observations=5739). We employ Bayesian multilevel modeling throughout both phases.Results: Facial traits are the primary driver of subject perceptions of leadership ability, and those perceptions successfully predict promotional success later in the cadets' careers. When selecting for leadership potential based on police cadet photographs, respondents predict correct promotional choices at levels well above chance as measured by an AUC score of .70. Further, respondents' evaluations successfully discriminate both between no promotion and lieutenant promotion, and sergeant versus lieutenant promotions.Conclusions: Promoting the most capable police officers is a critical feature of public service. Our findings cast a degree of doubt on the purportedly meritocratic foundations of police promotion and selection. Extra-legal information, such as facial features, predicts later promotional success.

Anatomical variants of acne differ in their impact on social perception

“…Many studies have indicated that humans make social evaluations from facial appearances instantaneously and automatically and facial skin health is a major factor in those evaluations 8,9 . Furthermore, such judgements play an important role in social contexts having identified impact on individual's romantic, economic and career‐related achievements 10,11 …”

“…8,9 Furthermore, such judgements play an important role in social contexts having identified impact on individual's romantic, economic and career-related achievements. 10,11 Eye-tracking studies demonstrated that visual attention to facial skin lesions depends on their anatomical location with two distinct zones of high and low visual attention identified. 12 Acne lesions may be restricted to, or more prevalent in either of visual zones depending on anatomical variant.…”