“IF THERE WAS NO WAR”: MODELING THE DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIAN AGRARIAN SOCIETY IN THE 1930s – 1950s (ON THE TAMBOV REGION MATERIAL)

Zhukov, Dmitry; Kanishchev, Valery V.

doi:10.17072/2219-3111-2019-3-118-136

Вест. ПГУ. История

2019

DOI: 10.17072/2219-3111-2019-3-118-136

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“IF THERE WAS NO WAR”: MODELING THE DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIAN AGRARIAN SOCIETY IN THE 1930s – 1950s (ON THE TAMBOV REGION MATERIAL)

Dmitry Zhukov¹,

Valery V. Kanishchev²

Abstract: Рассмотрены результаты компьютерного моделирования демографических процессов в аграрном обществе. Фрактальная модель, разработанная авторами, имитирует взаимодействие ряда управляющих факторов, которые можно считать наиболее значимыми для социальных систем, находящихся в состоянии трансформации. Описано несколько компьютерных экспериментов, демонстрирующих исследовательский инструментарий, а также представлены интерпретации выходных данных. Хронологические рамки работы определены 1939-1959 гг. Анализ результат… Show more

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Cited by 5 publications

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Tyumen District in 1920s: Settlement Numbers and Development Features

Valitov,

Sulimov

2023

jour

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The subject of this study is the rural settlements of the Tyumen district in the first quarter of the 20th century. It is noted that during this period, the Tyumen district was situated at the heart of the Tyumen region, ranking first in terms of population size (44,545 people) and the area of territory covered (5.4 thousand square kilometers). The paper examines changes in the number and typology of settlements within the Tyumen district through the lens of its rural localities. It has been established that the district’s settlement network consisted of 177 localities, falling into 11 types, with villages making up a significant proportion — over 50%. This fact indicates that in long-settled regions, settlement networks have existed in virtually unchanged forms despite various external and internal factors. Fifteen villages were identified as creating the framework of the Tyumen district’s settlement network, demonstrating resilience and successfully adapting to new conditions. For instance, data from 1912 and 1926 show that population numbers in these localities were growing, especially in those settlements occupying advantageous (central) positions within the existing network. Many villages in the Tyumen district attained this status during the Soviet period, even though at the beginning of the 20th century they were mere villages. Successful new connections between settlements were facilitated by transportation factors (the presence of railways, tract roads, and a navigable water artery — the Tura River).

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Tyumen District in 1920s: Settlement Numbers and Development Features

Valitov,

Sulimov

2023

jour

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Demographic Strategies of the Russian Rural Population: Intersubjective Nonlinearity Versus Economic Viability

Kanishchev¹,

Lyamin²,

Zhukov³

2022

JSSH

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The intersubjective demographic strategies of modern families and settlements appear to be nonlinear, negatively affecting traditional solutions’ efficiency in spurring demographic growth. This study seeks to determine how external circumstances influenced the formation and changes of fundamental collective ideas. The authors present the results from a model of demographic strategies that analyzed 1,544 rural settlements in Central Russia from 1959 to 1989, which was a period of accelerated urbanization and demographic transition. A fractal model was used to reconstruct social intentions. Control factors for each settlement were estimated based on indicators that reflect rural settlements’ material and technical conditions, economic, medical, and social service development levels, and the availability of attractive migration goals. More archaic communities responded to natural growth stimulation in a linear and relatively predictable fashion, but new competencies, needs, and opportunities appeared as communities developed socially and economically. Many counterintuitive effects influenced the evolution of modernized communities. In particular, the migration aspirations of rural youth led to a postponement in births and a drop in the birth rate despite an increased quality of life. An intense migratory influx into hub settlements also contributed to a decrease in the birth rate among the local population.

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Demographic development processes in the history of the Kaliningrad region: national trends and regional specifics

Mankevich

2022

Balt. Reg.

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This article aims to identify the main demographic development trends and features observed in the Kaliningrad region from a historical perspective and assess the extent to which the region’s demographic development corresponds to the national model accepted in contemporary historiography. The empirical sources used in this study include demographic statistics from published and archival materials; theoretically, it draws on the concepts of demographic and epidemiological transitions. Analysis of statistics and historiography is employed along with the comparative historical method. The migration factor had the leading role in the emergence of the regional specifics of demographic development. Migrants from the regions of the USSR that were deeply involved in demographic modernisation before the war formed the resident population of the Kaliningrad region. The gender and age profile of the migrants ensured the prolonged post-war demographic compensation and secured fertility and marriage rates above the RSFSR average. The regional fertility rates converged towards the national average in the second half of the 1950s; from the late 1970s, the region had a fertility rate below the national average. Overall mortality rates remained significantly lower than the RSFSR average until the mid-1990s. The changes in the regional population replacement model that took place in the region during the Soviet period and at the turn of the 21st century generally corresponded to national trends. Therefore, the concept of Russian demographic development proposed by Russian researchers is directly applicable to the exclave of Kaliningrad.

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“IF THERE WAS NO WAR”: MODELING THE DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN RUSSIAN AGRARIAN SOCIETY IN THE 1930s – 1950s (ON THE TAMBOV REGION MATERIAL)

Cited by 5 publications

References 2 publications

Tyumen District in 1920s: Settlement Numbers and Development Features

Tyumen District in 1920s: Settlement Numbers and Development Features

Demographic Strategies of the Russian Rural Population: Intersubjective Nonlinearity Versus Economic Viability

Demographic development processes in the history of the Kaliningrad region: national trends and regional specifics

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