If You Build It, Will They Consume? Key Challenges for Universal, Reliable, and Low-Cost Electricity Delivery in Kenya

Abstract

Kenya's rapid electrification in the past decade has improved the lives of millions, and can serve as a template for other countries that are growing their electricity systems and coverage. However, significant challenges remain: many more remain without access, there is low consumption among those that are connected, and the electricity supply has poor reliability and quality. This paper provides analysis that shows electrification can be improved by considering cheaper options that still meet the needs of low consumers and that low consumption is a first-order problem for the sustainability of utilities.

Rural electrification through mini-grids: Challenges ahead

“…Demand projections are oftentimes overstated not least because of excessive optimism in growth of electricity demand for productive uses. As Taneja (2018) notes "planning should depend on reasonable electricity demand growth projections that are produced by parties without incentives to overstate growth.". To this end, planning tools have to be improved, and data driven projections of electricity consumption in the future need to be used.…”

“…First, households and small enterprises in rural areas of developing countries typically have a very low ability to pay. Household electricity demand in rural Africa therefore tends to be very low, given the tariffs charged and the modest income levels (see for example D'Agostino et al 2016;Lenz et al 2017;Taneja 2018). Electricity in rural areas often is used only for lighting, charging mobile phones, and operating a few small appliances plus radios and sometimes TV sets.…”

“…Since the remaining one billion non electrified households are mostly poor and located in rural areas, connection costs of these households need to be heavily subsidized. The micro level evaluations referenced above also show that consumption of those who are connected is very low (see as well Taneja 2018) and impacts on incomes and jobs are modest.…”

SDG 6.2.1: Sanitation and hygiene

“…The objective was to identify SDG-aligned or SDG-like indicators used by partners and/or providers, and any data against these. A detailed set of criteria or rules were used for identifying indicators which were considered SDG-aligned or SDG-like.At corporate level, all Development Assistance Committee (DAC) member and multilateral development bank providers which are known to have adopted standard indicator sets,21 and have indicators in the relevant sectors, are included. At country level, the following providers are included: The top three DAC providers of aggregate bilateral official development assistance (ODA) disbursements to the partner country in that sector in 2016. The top three DAC providers of aggregate bilateral ODA disbursements to the partner country in that sub-sector in 2016, if different from above (e.g.…”

“…5 As shown in Section 3.3, this variety is also reflected at country level.6 Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) is an international organisation working with leaders in government, the private sector and civil society to drive further, faster action toward achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7. See Kenyan Ministry of Energy and Petroleum and SEforALL (2016[21]). 7 It is important to note that a monitoring system for the NEP-IRM is also listed as a specific output of the new World Bank electrification project (World Bank, 2018[11]).8 Kenya Off-grid Solar Access Project for Underserved Counties.…”