Impact assessment of climate change on rice productivity in the Indochinese Peninsula using a regional‐scale crop model

Abstract

In order to assess the impact of climate change on rice yields for the Indochina peninsula region, a regional rice model was forced with climate variables from CORDEX‐East Asia climate models. The future climate's impact on rice yield varies between countries, and it is dependent on both current climate conditions and the projected future climate. Climate change alone would lead to a 3.5–23.2% and 5.8–27.2% reduction in rice yield for the 2020s and 2040s, respectively, in the Indochinese peninsula, with the largest decreases in Cambodia. The negative impacts of climate change on rice can be partly offset by the positive effect of CO2 fertilization. For the Indochinese peninsula regions, changes in rice yield are quite sensitive to increases in temperature, and each one‐degree increase in temperature can cause about a 10.26% reduction in rice yields. The uncertainty in the predicted temperature from the regional climate models used contributed to approximately 59.7% of the uncertainty in rice yield projections. This result implies that the uncertainty in the projected temperatures from climate models could be one of the major sources of uncertainty in impact assessments. In this study, adaptation strategies, including changes in planting dates and use of irrigation and heat tolerant varieties, were tested. The use of tolerant varieties and shifting planting date are simple management responses that may offset a small part of the negative impact of climate change. For all the countries in the Indochinese peninsula, the CO2 fertilization effect and irrigation can offset most of the negative impacts caused by climate change by 2050, and irrigation is an effective adaptation method.

The indigenous uses of plants from Siberut, Mentawai, Indonesia

“…WWF (1980) highlighted several immense ecological benefits of sagu: the palm is easily regenerated, requires no pesticide input, and provides food sources and habitat corridors for multiple species (Figure 10). Given observations of changes in rice season and harvest yields due to climate-related effects (Li et al 2017), existing ecosystems already achieving efficient staple food production like Siberut's sagu swamps and pumonean are vital in ensuring food security for a growing population, and have considerable value toward current biodiversity conservation efforts (World Resources Institute 2019). Considering the interconnectedness of culture and biodiversity (Posey 1999, Pretty et al 2009, those plants most valuable to a community, and the cultural traditions that ensue, are fundamental for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem regeneration.…”

Assessing Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Measures on Rice Yields: The Case of Zhejiang Province in China

“…The results of this study are supported by previous studies. Li et al [68] found that the predicted temperature contributed to approximately 59.7% of the uncertainty in rice yield projections. Krishnan et al [69] predicted changes of −9.02%, −11.3%, and −21.35% in rice yields with future climate projections generated from the GFDL, GISS, and UKMO scenarios, respectively.…”

Adaptation Strategies under Climate Change for Sustainable Agricultural Productivity in Cambodia

“…Additionally, the FAO digital soil map of the world [57] was used for the dominant agricultural soil texture types. More detailed information on these data can be found in Li et al [58].…”

“…The GLAM-Rice model is a regional-scale crop model that was used to project the impact of climate change on rice yields in Cambodia. More detailed information on the GLAM-Rice model and the calibration and validation methods for the model can be found in Li et al [58]. The model was forced by different climate change scenarios: the baseline (1991-2000) and 2030s (2021-2030) under two emission scenarios (typically, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from HadGEM3, YSU-RSM and RegCM4.…”