Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Water Supply to Hsinchu Science Park in Taiwan

Abstract

The Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) in Taiwan plays a vital role in the chain of semiconductor production, but water scarcity has been challenging semiconductor manufacturing. The Baoshan Reservoir (BS) and the Baoshan Second Reservoir (BSR) are two major sources of water supply to the HSP. However, the impacts of climate change on the water supply have not been analyzed. In this study, a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT) and an operation model of the BR and the BSR were coupled to assess the climate change impacts on the inflow, outflow, and water storage volume (WSV) of the reservoirs. The simulations were based on the weather data for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios of AR5 for the Periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2060, and 2081–2100 derived from up to 33 GCMs/EMSs. It is found that more intensified global warming would generally result in more apparent rainfall seasonality that is wetter in the wet season and dryer in the dry season and more magnified seasonality in river flow. During the hotspot period of water shortage in the HSP from February to May, future water scarcity is expected to worsen. Among the 16 combinations of scenarios and Periods, 13 indicate lower WSV in the future compared to the Baseline. The annual mean number of ten-day periods with WSV lower than the operation rule curve ranges from 4.84 to 6.95 ten-day periods, higher than the Baseline of 4.81 ten-day periods. Overall, RCP6.0 has the most significant impact on the study area, with the highest annual economic loss occurring during the 2041-2060 period, reaching USD 1 billion (~2.37% of the 2023 annual production value) for the HSP. This study also provides a three-month cumulative rainfall threshold as an operational warning indicator for the HSP. Our assessment results indicate that future water supply to the HSP should be a serious concern for stabilizing the manufacturing processes and hence the global semiconductor component supply.