Impact assessment of combined climate and management scenarios on groundwater resources and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

Candela, Lucila; Igel, Wolf von; Elorza, Francisco Javier; Aronica, Giuseppe Tito

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.057

Cited by 109 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The results indicate a major increase in temperature and a drop in precipitation compared to the historical data (especially for the A2 scenario and the 2025-2050 time slice). Other researchers have obtained similar results in the studies they have done in the Mediterranean region [16,18,46]. A decreasing rainfall trend is observed along time and scenarios, although a moderate increase in precipitation is detected for the B1 greenhouse scenario at the end of the simulated 2025-2050 period (in comparison to the 2000-2024 time slice), which can be attributed to the associated uncertainties of the results.…”

Section: Climate Change Forecast and Effects On The Hydrological Systemsupporting

confidence: 78%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain

Candela

Tamoh

Olivares

et al. 2016

Water

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Climate change impact on water resources (streamflow and deep natural recharge) based on the downscaled outputs from the ECHAM5 general circulation model (GCM) has been investigated in the Mediterranean basin (Fluvià, Spain) for the A2, B1 greenhouse scenarios and 2000-2024/2025-2050 time slices. The HEC-HMS 3.4 rainfall-runoff numerical model was the basic tool used to generate streamflow for the historical period, and deep natural recharge was calculated from Visual-BALAN 2.0, a water-soil-plant distributed model. The hydrologic and recharge models were employed to generate future climate change hydrographs and the deep recharge amount. Furthermore, the selected future climate scenarios, subject to possible changes in the land use/land cover forecast, were integrated into the models, and water resource impacts were assessed. The multiple combinations of climate model, time slices, greenhouse scenarios, land use/land cover scenarios and hydrological estimation methods resulted in six scenarios. The obtained results estimate an increase in temperature (1.5˝C), a decline in precipitation (17%) and a maximum decrease of 49.5% and 16.8% in runoff and groundwater recharge, respectively, for 2050 (A2) compared to the historical values. Planned land cover scenarios, implying small changes of agricultural and forested land, show no major contribution to future water resource changes. According to the results, the most sensitive parameters conditioning future water resources are changes in temperature and precipitation.

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Section: Climate Change Forecast and Effects On The Hydrological Systemsupporting

confidence: 78%

“…Future spatial precipitation was obtained from the five stations' downscaled data. For a more profound explanation of the applied methodology, the reader is directed to information contained in [18] and the Supplementary Materials.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain

Candela

Tamoh

Olivares

et al. 2016

Water

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“…Visual Balan has proven reliable and robust when reproducing measured values of prolonged monitoring tasks that were carried out in several catchments of NW Spain (Martínez et al, 2006;Raposo et al, 2010;Samper et al, 1997Samper et al, , 1999Sena and Molinero, 2009;Soriano and Samper, 2000), and for recharge evaluation in other regions of Spain and Latin America (Candela et al, 2009;Carrica, 2004;Castañeda and García-Vera, 2008;Espinha-Marques et al, 2011;Garcia-Santos and Marzol;Jiménez-Martínez et al, 2010;Samper and Pisani, 2009;Weinzettel et al, 2002).…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 96%

Parameterization and quantification of recharge in crystalline fractured bedrocks in Galicia-Costa (NW Spain)

Raposo

Molinero

Dafonte

2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Quantifying groundwater recharge in crystalline rocks presents great difficulties due to the high heterogeneity of the underground medium (mainly, due to heterogeneity in fracture network, which determines hydraulic parameters of the bedrock like hydraulic conductivity or effective porosity). Traditionally these rocks have been considered to have very low permeability, and their groundwater resources have usually been neglected; however, they can be of local importance when the bedrock presents a net of well-developed fractures. The current European Water Framework Directive requires an efficient management of all groundwater resources; this begins with a proper knowledge of the aquifer and accurate recharge estimation. In this study, an assessment of groundwater resources in the Spanish hydrologic district of Galicia-Costa, dominated by granitic and metasedimentary rocks, was carried out. A water-balance modeling approach was used for estimating recharge rates in nine pilot catchments representatives of both geologic materials. These results were cross-validated with an independent technique, i.e. the chloride mass balance (CMB). A relation among groundwater recharge and annual precipitation according to two different logistic curves was found for both granites and metasedimentary rocks, thus allowing the parameterization of recharge by means of only a few hydrogeological parameters. Total groundwater resources in Galicia-Costa were estimated to be 4427 hm 3 yr −1 . An analysis of spatial and temporal variability of recharge was also carried out.

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“…Only a few of these simulate groundwater conditions with a physically based groundwater flow model (e.g. Yosoff et al, 2002;Scibek and Allen, 2006;van Roosmalen et al, 2007;Candela et al, 2009;Toews and Allen, 2009). The general interest of these studies is water resources, where quantifications of groundwater recharge and responding groundwater levels at seasonal timescales are adequate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values

Kidmose

Refsgaard

Troldborg

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents a first attempt to estimate future groundwater levels by applying extreme value statistics on predictions from a hydrological model. Climate scenarios for the future period, 2081-2100, are represented by projections from nine combinations of three global climate models and six regional climate models, and downscaled (including bias correction) with two different methods. An integrated surface water/groundwater model is forced with precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration from the 18 models and downscaling combinations. Extreme value analyses are performed on the hydraulic head changes from a control period (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) to the future period for the 18 combinations. Hydraulic heads for return periods of 21, 50 and 100 yr (T 21−100 ) are estimated. Three uncertainty sources are evaluated: climate models, downscaling and extreme value statistics. Of these sources, extreme value statistics dominates for return periods higher than 50 yr, whereas uncertainty from climate models and extreme value statistics are similar for lower return periods. Uncertainty from downscaling only contributes to around 10 % of the uncertainty from the three sources.

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Impact assessment of combined climate and management scenarios on groundwater resources and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

Cited by 109 publications

References 48 publications

Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain

Climate and Land Use Changes on Streamflow and Subsurface Recharge in the Fluvià Basin, Spain

Parameterization and quantification of recharge in crystalline fractured bedrocks in Galicia-Costa (NW Spain)

Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values

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