Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs

Bambery, Zoe; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Bunnell, Rebecca; Roy, Kakoli; Ahmed, Zara; Payne, Rebecca; Meltzer, Martin I.

doi:10.1089/hs.2017.0052

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Building on the present assessment of US export data, a related recent analysis of hypothetical outbreak scenarios in Southeast Asia suggested a substantial impact of outbreak disruptions on US exports and export-supporting jobs. 22 Combined with the present analysis, these analyses illustrate the potential economic disruption to the US export economy and our export-supporting jobs should a large-scale outbreak occur in any of the global health security priority countries. 22 These findings may be useful to inform decisions about the value of public health programs, investments, and policies aimed at building public health capacity worldwide.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

“… 22 Combined with the present analysis, these analyses illustrate the potential economic disruption to the US export economy and our export-supporting jobs should a large-scale outbreak occur in any of the global health security priority countries. 22 These findings may be useful to inform decisions about the value of public health programs, investments, and policies aimed at building public health capacity worldwide. When all countries are able to rapidly prevent, detect, and control outbreaks at their source, the risk of large outbreaks and pandemics can be reduced and global health security enhanced.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

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Relevance of Global Health Security to the US Export Economy

Cassell¹,

Bambery²,

Roy³

et al. 2017

Health Security

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To reduce the health security risk and impact of outbreaks around the world, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its partners are building capabilities to prevent, detect, and contain outbreaks in 49 global health security priority countries. We examine the extent of economic vulnerability to the US export economy posed by trade disruptions in these 49 countries. Using 2015 US Department of Commerce data, we assessed the value of US exports and the number of US jobs supported by those exports. US exports to the 49 countries exceeded $308 billion and supported more than 1.6 million jobs across all US states in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, oil and gas, services, and other sectors. These exports represented 13.7% of all US export revenue worldwide and 14.3% of all US jobs supported by all US exports. The economic linkages between the United States and these global health security priority countries illustrate the importance of ensuring that countries have the public health capacities needed to control outbreaks at their source before they become pandemics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Relevance of Global Health Security to the US Export Economy

Cassell¹,

Bambery²,

Roy³

et al. 2017

Health Security

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“…Because the countries affected by the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak are relatively minor trading partners for the United States, it is plausible that epidemics affecting larger partner countries would be more consequential. For example, the East Asia and Pacific region is one area with key U.S. trade relationships that has an elevated risk of emerging epidemics, where Indonesia alone is both a top destination for U.S. exports (Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2018) and an identified hotspot for potential infectious outbreaks (Perkins, Patrick, Patel, & Fenwick, 2007) and where hypothetical outbreak scenarios have suggested that billions in U.S. exports could be at stake in the event of an infectious disease epidemic (Bambery et al, 2018). The expected worldwide economic loss from a major influenza pandemic has been estimated at 0.6% of global income (Fan, Jamison, & Summers, 2017), with country-specific pandemic simulations predicting losses of up to 6% of GDP for several Western European countries (Keogh-Brown, Smith, Edmunds, & Beutels, 2010) and up to 7.3% of GDP for Australia (Verikios, McCaw, McVernon, & Harris, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment

et al. 2019

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Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports‐supported U.S. jobs, 2005–2016. Estimates were obtained using difference‐in‐differences models where sub‐Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time‐variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola‐affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports‐supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.

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“…In many instances, T c -T w > 0. We extracted the gross domestic product (GDP) due to Ebola epidemic per week, and fixed the cost, c , as 14 million United States dollars (USD) per week ( Bambery et al, 2018 ). Second, let Pr ( T c ) and Pr ( T w ) as the probability of observing at least one additional case given the waiting time T c and T w .…”

Section: Cost-effectiveness Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic

Lee

Nishiura

2019

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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a b s t r a c tThe criteria of zero Ebola cases defined by the World Health Organization did not explicitly account for the sexual transmission and led to multiple recrudescent events in West Africa from 2015 to 2016, partly indeed caused by sexual transmission from survivors. We devised a statistical model to compute the probability of the end of an Ebola virus disease epidemic, accounting for sexual transmission and underascertainment of cases. Analyzing the empirical data in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the performance of the proposed model was compared with the existing criteria comprising a fixed waiting time of 42 days since the last case testing negative or burial. We showed that the waiting time can vary depending on the sexual behaviors of survivors and their adherence to refraining from unprotected sex is likely one of the key factors in determining the absence of additional cases after declaration. If the proportional weight of sexual transmission among all secondary transmission events was substantial, ascertaining the end could even require waiting 1 year from the purported last case. While our proposed method offers an objectively interpretable probability of the end of an epidemic, it highlights that the computation requires a good knowledge of sexual contact.

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Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs

Cited by 14 publications

References 3 publications

Relevance of Global Health Security to the US Export Economy

Relevance of Global Health Security to the US Export Economy

Long‐distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment

Sexual transmission and the probability of an end of the Ebola virus disease epidemic

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