Aboveground carbon varies considerably among tropical forests, which contain 40% of terrestrial biomass carbon stocks (Muller-Landau et al., 2021; Xu et al., 2021). This broad spatial variation in aboveground carbon stocks is controlled mainly by differences in tree mortality rates and thus woody residence time (Galbraith et al., 2013;Johnson et al., 2016). The frequency and intensity of storms, drought, fires and other drivers of tropical tree mortality are expected to increase with climate change, potentially becoming a positive feedback to global atmospheric carbon (McDowell et al., 2018), consistent with findings of increasing carbon losses from mortality in forest plots in the Amazon basin (Brienen et al., 2015). The magnitude and consequences of increased tree mortality are unclear because tree mortality and damage are poorly represented, and a dominant source of uncertainty, in terrestrial Earth system models (Koven et al., 2015(Koven et al., , 2020. Such models are particularly uncertain for tropical forests, preventing accurate understanding of future global climate (Restrepo-Coupe et al., 2017).At regional and local scales, tropical tree mortality increases with soil fertility (