Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover

Gagné, Marie-Ève; Gillett, Nathan P.; Fyfe, John C.

doi:10.1002/2015gl065504

Cited by 33 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The observed IPO began to transition away from its peak negative phase in the past few years (Figure 1d). Near-future changes in sea-ice will also depend on external forcing, including the rate of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Jahn, 2018) and aerosols (Gagne et al, 2015). We note, of course, that the IPO is not the only factor that will modulate the rate of Arctic sea-ice loss in coming decades.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

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Deser

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Arctic Ocean is projected to become seasonally ice‐free before midcentury unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, but exactly when this could occur depends considerably on internal climate variability. Here we show that trajectories to an ice‐free Arctic are modulated by concomitant shifts in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Trajectories starting in the negative IPO phase become ice‐free 7 years sooner than those starting in the positive IPO phase. Trajectories starting in the negative IPO phase subsequently transition toward the positive IPO phase, on average, with an associated strengthening of the Aleutian Low, increased poleward energy transport, and faster sea‐ice loss. The observed IPO began to transition away from its negative phase in the past few years. If this shift continues, our results suggest increased likelihood of accelerated sea‐ice loss over the coming decades, and an increased risk of an ice‐free Arctic within the next 20–30 years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

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Deser

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Indeed, the ice‐expanding influence of aerosol forcing was able to offset the greenhouse‐gases‐forced decline in ice cover for the period 1950–1975. Further, these results imply that caution is needed in inferring the future rate of sea ice decline with respect to cumulative CO 2 emissions from that observed over the past 60 years [ Notz and Stroeve , ], since aerosol emissions increased over the historical period but are projected to decrease in the future [ Gagné et al , ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol‐driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century

Gagné

Fyfe

Gillett

et al. 2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Updated observational data sets without climatological infilling show that there was an increase in sea ice concentration in the eastern Arctic between 1950 and 1975, contrary to earlier climatology infilled observational data sets that show weak interannual variations during that time period. We here present climate model simulations showing that this observed sea ice concentration increase was primarily a consequence of cooling induced by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcing. Indeed, sulphur dioxide emissions, which lead to the formation of sulphate aerosols, peaked around 1980 causing a sharp increase in the burden of sulphate between the 1950s and 1970s; but since 1980, the burden has dropped. Our climate model simulations show that the cooling contribution of aerosols offset the warming effect of increasing greenhouse gases over the midtwentieth century resulting in the expansion of the Arctic sea ice cover. These results challenge the perception that Arctic sea ice extent was unperturbed by human influence until the 1970s, suggesting instead that it exhibited earlier forced multidecadal variations, with implications for our understanding of impacts and adaptation in human and natural Arctic systems.

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“…In the future, reductions in global emissions of aerosol and precursors may result in positive net aerosol radiative forcing, due largely to reduced sulphur emissions, and an increase in the rate of Arctic warming Gagné et al, 2015). Emission reductions may also lead to a strengthening of the meridional atmospheric temperature gradient at high latitudes and thereby changes in large-scale circulation (Rotstayn et al, 2014).…”

Section: Arctic Climate Response To Radiative Forcing Within and Outsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade

et al. 2016

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The Arctic is a sentinel of global change. This region is influenced by multiple physical and socio-economic drivers and feedbacks, impacting both the natural and human environment. Air pollution is one such driver that impacts Arctic climate change, ecosystems and health but significant uncertainties still surround quantification of these effects. Arctic air pollution includes harmful trace gases (e.g. tropospheric ozone) and particles (e.g. black carbon, sulphate) and toxic substances (e.g. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) that can be transported to the Arctic from emission sources located far outside the region, or emitted within the Arctic from activities including shipping, power production, and other industrial activities. This paper qualitatively summarizes the complex science issues motivating the creation of a new international initiative, PACES (air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies). Approaches for coordinated, international and interdisciplinary research on this topic are described with the goal to improve predictive capability via new understanding about sources, processes, feedbacks and impacts of Arctic air pollution. Overarching research actions are outlined, in which we describe our recommendations for 1) the development of trans-disciplinary approaches combining social and economic research with investigation of the chemical and physical aspects Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade of Arctic air pollution; 2) increasing the quality and quantity of observations in the Arctic using long-term monitoring and intensive field studies, both at the surface and throughout the troposphere; and 3) developing improved predictive capability across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Domain Editor-in-Chief

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Impact of aerosol emission controls on future Arctic sea ice cover

Cited by 33 publications

References 31 publications

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

Aerosol‐driven increase in Arctic sea ice over the middle of the twentieth century

Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade

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