Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak

Counotte, Michel Jacques; Althaus, Christian L.; Low, Nicola; Riou, Julien

doi:10.1101/661223

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 45 publications

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“…Mathematical models have become well established in the past two decades to assess emerging vector-borne disease intervention strategies including regular nets, artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT), long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT) and vaccination [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. In particular, compartmental models are capable of taking into account these intervention strategies in the transmission cycles of vector-borne diseases and quantify their impacts on disease control and prevention using ordinary differential equations [20,23,36,38,[43][44][45][46][47][48].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Vector-Borne Disease Intervention Strategies Using Compartmental Models: A Case Study of 2016 Zika Epidemic In Miami-Dade County, Florida

Luo

Cassels

Nara

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: In August 2016, Miami-Dade County implemented Zika intervention strategies to combat a dramatic increase in incidence. Encouragingly, there was a significant decrease; howbeit, the effectiveness of these interventions remains unclear, and many countries in the world still suffer from various vector-borne diseases.Methods: To evaluate emerging vector-borne disease intervention strategies, we propose a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered Intervention Model (SEIR-IM) and apply the model to the 2016 Zika outbreak in Miami-Dade County, Florida as a case study. The proposed model allows for the impacts of the interventions on the transmission cycle of vector-borne diseases, and is parameterized by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).Results: Within the exiting literature, we find that vector-borne disease intervention strategies promote disease control in the context of human, vector, and human-vector contact. Overall, during the course of interventions, the transmission probability of humans decreases from 0.417 to 0.38 versus mosquitoes from 0.418 to 0.19. Through further analysis, the host-based controls are able to reduce the human infections to 27, while the vector-based controls are 50. On the basis of analysis of the human infections at high intervention coverage, in particular, continued scale-up of the interventions from baseline, we find that the interventions at higher coverage lead to an earlier but higher infection peak: 20 more infections and 100 days in advance.Conclusions: The three interventions result in a remarkable decline of the Zika infection in Miami-Dade County, and the host-based and contact- based controls are the most effective in reducing Zika incidence.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Vector-Borne Disease Intervention Strategies Using Compartmental Models: A Case Study of 2016 Zika Epidemic In Miami-Dade County, Florida

Luo

Cassels

Nara

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Modelling the dynamics of Zika in a population with two strains of the virus with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis

Ukanwoke

Okuonghae

Inyama

2021

Int. J. Dynam. Control

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Zika Virus—A Reemerging Neurotropic Arbovirus Associated with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Neuropathogenesis

Elliott,

Mattapallil

2024

Pathogens

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Zika virus (ZIKV) is a reemerging flavivirus that is primarily spread through bites from infected mosquitos. It was first discovered in 1947 in sentinel monkeys in Uganda and has since been the cause of several outbreaks, primarily in tropical and subtropical areas. Unlike earlier outbreaks, the 2015–2016 epidemic in Brazil was characterized by the emergence of neurovirulent strains of ZIKV strains that could be sexually and perinatally transmitted, leading to the Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) in newborns, and Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) along with encephalitis and meningitis in adults. The immune response elicited by ZIKV infection is highly effective and characterized by the induction of both ZIKV-specific neutralizing antibodies and robust effector CD8+ T cell responses. However, the structural similarities between ZIKV and Dengue virus (DENV) lead to the induction of cross-reactive immune responses that could potentially enhance subsequent DENV infection, which imposes a constraint on the development of a highly efficacious ZIKV vaccine. The isolation and characterization of antibodies capable of cross-neutralizing both ZIKV and DENV along with cross-reactive CD8+ T cell responses suggest that vaccine immunogens can be designed to overcome these constraints. Here we review the structural characteristics of ZIKV along with the evidence of neuropathogenesis associated with ZIKV infection and the complex nature of the immune response that is elicited by ZIKV infection.

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Impact of age-specific immunity on the timing and burden of the next Zika virus outbreak

Cited by 4 publications

References 45 publications

Evaluation of Vector-Borne Disease Intervention Strategies Using Compartmental Models: A Case Study of 2016 Zika Epidemic In Miami-Dade County, Florida

Evaluation of Vector-Borne Disease Intervention Strategies Using Compartmental Models: A Case Study of 2016 Zika Epidemic In Miami-Dade County, Florida

Modelling the dynamics of Zika in a population with two strains of the virus with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis

Zika Virus—A Reemerging Neurotropic Arbovirus Associated with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Neuropathogenesis

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