Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios

Ayala, L. Miguel; Eupen, M. van; Zhang, Guoping; Pérez‐Soba, Marta; Martorano, Lucieta Guerreiro; Lisboa, L. S.; Beltrão, Norma Ely Santos

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.191

Cited by 42 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Furthermore, the percentage of farms above the poverty line and food self-sufficient was computed for both the baseline and the future situation. Hence, the scenario analysis was not based on a continuous temporal change, but on a comparison of separately modelled baseline and future situations, which is common practice (Miguel Ayala et al, 2016;Rajib et al, 2016). The model was built with the R programming language.…”

Section: Simulation Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural intensification and policy interventions: Exploring plausible futures for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali

et al. 2018

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A B S T R A C TAssessing how livelihoods in rural sub-Saharan Africa might change given future trends in socio-economic and biophysical conditions helps to identify and direct effective efforts towards poverty reduction. Based on existing literature, hypothetical changes in farmer practices and policy interventions were described and used to build five contrasting scenarios towards the year 2027. A simulation framework was developed to assess food selfsufficiency and income per capita now and in the future for a representative village of 99 households in Southern Mali. In the current situation, 26% of the farms were food self-sufficient and above the 1.9 US$ day −1 poverty line. This percentage would fall to 13% in the "Business as usual" scenario. In the "Dairy development" scenario, with intensification of livestock production and support to the milk sector, 27% of farms would be food selfsufficient and non-poor. Additional policy interventions targeting family planning and job creation outside agriculture would be needed to improve both household food self-sufficiency and income per capita. In this optimistic scenario, 77% of the farms would be non-poor and food self-sufficient in 2027. Additional programs to promote Integrated Pest Management, small-scale mechanization and mineral fertilizer on traditional cereals could allow a drastic increase in productivity and would lift 94% of the farm population out of poverty. Considering the entire heterogeneous farm population was crucial to accurately assess pathways out of poverty. Our study stresses the need for a strategic and multi-sectoral combination of interventions to improve livelihoods.http://dx.

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Section: Simulation Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural intensification and policy interventions: Exploring plausible futures for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali

et al. 2018

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“…This α percentage depends on the climate, soil, agricultural practices, slope and runoff [ 16 , 34 ]. In this work, the variables considered to calculate this percentage were the slope of each cell and the amount of irrigation water applied in each cell every month [ 8 , 29 , 38 ]. The volume of water applied, instead of runoff, is used since it is irrigated agriculture.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Appraisal of the water footprint of irrigated agriculture in a semi-arid area: The Segura River Basin

2018

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Irrigated agriculture is a key activity in water resources management at the river basin level in arid and semi-arid areas, since this sector consumes the largest part of the water resources overall. The current study proposes a methodology to evaluate the water footprint (WF) of the irrigated agriculture sector at the river basin level, through a simulation of the anthropised water cycle combining a hydrological model and a decision support system. The main difference from the approaches that have already been used is that the new methodology includes the limitations of the system for the exploitation of water resources where the irrigated areas are located, and it considers the hydrological principles governed by the law of continuity of mass. Water footprint accounting was carried out for the Segura River Basin (South-eastern Spain), applying the methodology proposed and another that is usually applied. The results of the two methodologies were compared, revealing significant differences in the values of the WF, basically due to the blue component. The methodology that is usually applied overestimated the WF of the agriculture in the basin since supply deficits were not taken into account, providing results that would only be possible if there were no spatial or temporal restrictions to water use. So, in order to make the WF indicator useful in water resources management plans, it is necessary to adapt the computations to the main characteristics of the water exploitation system of the whole basin under study, respecting the hydrological principles of the water cycle: regulation and transport infrastructure, the real water resources available and the priority of access to water between concurrent water uses.

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“…Blue water scarcity was "severe" when WS B > 2, "significant" when 1.5 < WS B < 2, "moderate" when 1 < WS B < 1.5, and "low" when WS B < 1 [23]. Green water scarcity was "unsustainable" when WS G > 1, a "threat" when 0.5 < WS G <1, "within sustainable limits" when 0.25 < WS G < 0.5, and sustainable when WS G < 0.25 [24]. Results were then interpreted following the deforestation (BAU, GOV) and climate change (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W m −2 ) scenarios described above, and onto which we added population growth and agricultural production scenarios (Table 1).…”

Section: Interpretation and Response Formulation Through Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating Water Use for Agricultural Intensification in Southern Amazonia Using the Water Footprint Sustainability Assessment

Lathuillière

Coe

Castanho

et al. 2018

Water

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We performed a Water Footprint Sustainability Assessment (WFSA) in the Xingu Basin of Mato Grosso (XBMT), Brazil, with the objectives of (1) tracking blue (as surface water) and green water (as soil moisture regenerated by precipitation) consumption in recent years (2000, 2014); and (2) evaluating agricultural intensification options for future years (2030, 2050) considering the effects of deforestation and climate change on water availability in the basin. The agricultural sector was the largest consumer of water in the basin despite there being almost no irrigation of cropland or pastures. In addition to water use by crops and pasture grass, water consumption attributed to cattle production included evaporation from roughly 9463 ha of small farm reservoirs used to provide drinking water for cattle in 2014. The WFSA showed that while blue and green water consumptive uses were within sustainable limits in 2014, deforestation, cattle confinement, and the use of irrigation to increase cropping frequency could drive water use to unsustainable levels in the future. While land management policies and practices should strive for protection of the remaining natural vegetation, increased agricultural production will require reservoir and irrigation water management to reduce the potential threat of blue water scarcity in the dry season. In addition to providing general guidance for future water allocation decisions in the basin, our study offers an interpretation of blue and green water scarcities with changes in land use and climate in a rapidly evolving agricultural frontier.

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Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios

Cited by 42 publications

References 42 publications

Agricultural intensification and policy interventions: Exploring plausible futures for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali

Agricultural intensification and policy interventions: Exploring plausible futures for smallholder farmers in Southern Mali

Appraisal of the water footprint of irrigated agriculture in a semi-arid area: The Segura River Basin

Evaluating Water Use for Agricultural Intensification in Southern Amazonia Using the Water Footprint Sustainability Assessment

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