Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Abstract

Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Predicting Plasmodium knowlesi transmission risk across Peninsular Malaysia using machine learning-based ecological niche modeling approaches

“…Previous studies have demonstrated the use of boosted regression tree (BRT) to map the geographical distribution of natural reservoirs and vectors of P. knowlesi and estimated the risk of P. knowlesi infection throughout Southeast Asia ( Moyes et al, 2016 ; Shearer et al, 2016 ). Also, several studies applied ensemble modeling techniques by integrating multiple predictive models to generate a prediction of malaria risk with higher performance ( Bhatt et al, 2017 ; Chemison et al, 2021 ).…”

Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems

“…ice sheet melting, melting of the permafrost, dieback of the Amazon) and their potential impacts on societies should be encouraged (Lenton et al, 2019). Rising sea levels and induced climatic impacts could have primordial consequences for human societies, health (Chemison et al, 2021), agriculture (Defrance et al, 2017) and the global economy (Kuhlbrodt et al, 2009). members available for the historical (Fig.…”

Application areas of artificial intelligence in the context of One Health with a focus on antimicrobial resistance

“…Hier werden unter anderem die unmittelbaren Auswirkungen der globalen Erwärmung auf die Gesundheit der Bevölkerung bereits intensiv untersucht, zum Beispiel im Hinblick auf: hitzebedingte Herz- und Kreislaufstörungen sowie Todesfälle [ 22 ], Ausbrüche von Infektionskrankheiten durch klimabedingte Verschiebung von Vektorhabitaten und zunehmende Globalisierung [ 23 ] oder Auswirkungen auf die mentale Gesundheit [ 24 ]. Hinzu kommen Forschungsfelder, die weitaus subtilere gesundheitsrelevante Prozesse beinhalten, wie zum Beispiel: mögliche Veränderungen des Malariaaufkommens durch beschleunigtes Abschmelzen des grönländischen Eisschildes [ 25 ] und durch Abholzung des Amazonas-Regenwaldes [ 26 ], die zunehmenden mentalen Belastungen durch fortschreitende Urbanisierung und durch den Verlust von Ökosystemen [ 27 ], sich verändernde Infektionsdynamiken durch Umweltstress, z. B. durch neue Migrationsrouten in der Tierwelt, neue Wirt-Erreger-Interaktionen [ 28 ] oder sich ausbreitende klima- und umweltbedingte antimikrobielle Resistenzen [ 29 ].…”