Impact of Brexit on Islamic stock markets: employing MGARCH-DCC and wavelet correlation analysis

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to study the co-movement dynamics of Islamic equity returns to explain international portfolio diversification opportunities for investors having a heterogeneous stock holding period in light of Brexit. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the following three recent methodologies: the multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic-dynamic conditional correlations, continuous wavelet transforms and maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform. Dow Jones Islamic country-based indexes are used from 2 September 2013 to 31 December 2019. Findings There is a high correlation between the United Kingdom (UK) Islamic stock market return with the Canadian, USA, Malaysian and Indian implying lesser diversification benefits for the investors. However, the results tend to indicate that UK Islamic stock market investors who have allocated their investment in Sri Lanka, Kuwait, Japan and Turkey have enjoyed diversification benefits. Besides, there is a declining correlation between UK Islamic stock markets and other selected markets aftermath of Brexit. Turkey seems the most volatile stock over the period, appealing to risk-lover investors to gain from price changes. When the shock occurs in the financial sector, the volatility is mean-reverting faster than other markets in Sri Lanka. On the other hand, Malaysia appears to have the least volatility implying a stable financial sector. Research limitations/implications The results tend to shed light on effective portfolio diversification benefits in light of the recent shock (Brexit) between the UK Islamic stock index and other selected indexes that vary from country to country depending on investment horizons. This critically confirms the significance of heterogeneity in investment horizons and provides significant inferences for portfolio diversification strategies. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first study investigating the Brexit effect on Islamic stocks, guiding Shariah sensitive investors in their diversification strategies, providing information to investors to consider the implications of this incident on Islamic stocks for future shocks.

Performances of leading Islamic finance markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic

“…However, in the context of the given research, the MGARCH-DCC approach is preferred as it allows us to investigate the volatilities of each market and test dynamic correlations between markets. For instance, Çikiryel et al [ 35 ] used Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic – Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MGARCH-DCC) and Wavelet analysis to test the impact of Brexit on the performance of Islamic stock markets. Karim et al [ 36 ] also employed the same two approaches to examine the dynamic comovements between oil and BRICS stock market returns.…”