burdens healthcare systems and increases social costs. Given the impact of cigarette smoking, the development of effective interventions to address tobacco addiction is a major public health need. There are 350 million smokers in China, which accounts for one-third of the world's smokers 8. Unfortunately, smoking cessation services and counseling are at an early stage of development in China. Moreover, healthcare workers in China do not exert much effort in helping smokers to quit tobacco use 9. Therefore, the effectiveness of existing smoking cessation ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION The study aimed to establish and internally validate a nomogram to predict successful smoking cessation in a Chinese outpatient population. METHODS A total of 278 participants were included, and data were collected from March 2016 to December 2018. Predictors for successful smoking cessation were evaluated by 3-month sustained abstinence rates. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select variables for the model to predict successful smoking cessation, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to establish a novel predictive model. The discriminatory ability, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were determined by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis, respectively. Internal validation with bootstrapping was performed. RESULTS The nomogram included living with a smoker or experiencing workplace smoking, number of outpatient department visits, reason for quitting tobacco, and varenicline use. The nomogram demonstrated valuable predictive performance, with a C-index of 0.816 and good calibration. A high C-index of 0.804 was reached with interval validation. Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram for predicting successful smoking cessation was clinically significant when intervention was conducted at a successful cessation of smoking possibility threshold of 19%. CONCLUSIONS This novel nomogram for successful smoking cessation can be conveniently used to predict successful cessation of smoking in outpatients.