Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa

Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum; Gan, Thian Yew

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3366-2

Cited by 108 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The results of the drought analysis on the three-month scale suggest that North Darfur is vulnerable to droughts. These results agree with a previous study by Gizaw and Gan (2017), who studied drought activities and severities over sub-Saharan Africa from 1971 to present.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…Clearly, the North Darfur region is vulnerable to drought and has frequently undergone droughts. Climate change is expected to increase drought risk in this region (Gizaw & Gan, 2017;IPCC, 2013), which makes the drought-prone areas more vulnerable (Cheeseman, 2016;IPCC, 2012 Our study further reveals that all 10 subregions in North Darfur have medium to low adaptive capacities for drought risks ( Figure 5).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Clearly, the North Darfur region is vulnerable to drought and has frequently undergone droughts. Climate change is expected to increase drought risk in this region (Gizaw & Gan, ; IPCC, ), which makes the drought‐prone areas more vulnerable (Cheeseman, ; IPCC, ). In the context of climate change, the livelihoods in most of the study region are expected to become more vulnerable to drought if there are no substantial adaptations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions that is most adversely affected by recurrent droughts (Gizaw & Gan, 2017). This region has scarce freshwater supplies and relies heavily on agriculture to support its economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of drought and vulnerability in the North Darfur region of Sudan

et al. 2018

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North Darfur of Sudan is located on the edge of the Sahara Desert and endures frequent droughts due to water shortages and high summer temperatures. Monitoring and understanding drought characteristics are essential for integrated drought risk mitigation and prevetion of land degradation. This study evaluates drought conditions in North Darfur by analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of drought using three drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Vegetation Condition Index, and Soil Moisture Content Index) and their combined drought index (CDI) from 2004 to 2013. Biophysical and socioeconomic indicators are further used to measure vulnerability to drought risk and its three components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) through a comprehensive risk assessment framework. The results show that most of North Darfur has experienced prolonged droughts during the study period, especially from 2007 to 2011. There is also a significant correlation between the monsoon season CDI and annual crop yield anomaly. The results confirm the validity of the CDI index, which provides a comprehensive description of the drought situation by combing four drought indices quantifying different drought aspects. The vulnerability results show that the majority of this region is highly exposed and sensitive to drought risks. In particular, the northern zone of the region is highly vulnerable, which is categorized by less‐crop diversity, higher land degradation, frequent droughts, and high‐poverty levels. This study provides valuable information for coping with climate change‐induced drought risk in this region and demonstrates that there is still a large room for enhancing the adaptation capacity in this region.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Clearly, the North Darfur region is vulnerable to drought and has frequently undergone droughts. Climate change is expected to increase drought risk in this region (Gizaw & Gan, ; IPCC, ), which makes the drought‐prone areas more vulnerable (Cheeseman, ; IPCC, ). In the context of climate change, the livelihoods in most of the study region are expected to become more vulnerable to drought if there are no substantial adaptations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of drought and vulnerability in the North Darfur region of Sudan

et al. 2018

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“…Droughts linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been associated with famines in Ethiopia over hundreds of years (Wolde-Georgis 1997), and the recent 2015 strong El Niño event had widespread impacts to agriculture, livestock and food security (United States Agency for International Development (USAID) 2016). In the Nile Basin and the Greater Horn of Africa, a trend towards more frequent El Niño events over the 21st century may expand drought-prone areas (Gizaw and Gan 2017). With this increasing potential for climatic drought in Ethiopia, the country is an important area in which to investigate climate change impacts to sorghum from extreme, sub-seasonal rainfall deficit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change

Eggen

Özdoğan

Zaitchik

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In the tropics, extreme weather associated with global climate teleconnections can have an outsized impact on food security. In Ethiopia, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is frequently linked to drought-induced food insecurity. Many projections hold that El Niño events will become more frequent or more intense under climate change, suggesting that El Niño associated droughts may become more destructive. Agricultural vulnerability to extremes under climate change, however, is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity, in this context, can depend on subseasonal distribution of rainfall. This paper investigates crop sensitivity to sub-seasonal rainfall variability under climate change in a food insecure area of the Ethiopian highlands through analysis of process-oriented crop model results for the years 1981-2100 driven by 14 GCMs chosen for the ability to represent ENSO and rainfall characteristics of the study area. Further, adaptive capacity in the region is investigated with in-depth interviews and focus groups concerning the 2015 strong El Niño event. Crop model results for sorghum highlight that exposure and sensitivity to sub-seasonal extremes of low rainfall can diverge significantly from sorghum's response to seasonal drought. Even though climate change will bring generally warmer and wetter seasons to the study area, there is an increased occurrence of sub-seasonal failure of rains early in the rainy season which will likely have negative impacts on sorghum yield. In-depth interviews show that biophysical constraints significantly reduce farmer adaptive capacity to this type of sub-seasonal extreme. This work highlights the need to consider sub-seasonal weather when assessing climate change threats to agriculture, particularly for subsistence farmers in the developing world.

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Historical changes in rainfall patterns over the Congo basin and impactson runoff (1903-2010)

Ndehedehe

Agutu

2020

Preprint

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Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa

Cited by 108 publications

References 42 publications

Analysis of drought and vulnerability in the North Darfur region of Sudan

Analysis of drought and vulnerability in the North Darfur region of Sudan

Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change

Historical changes in rainfall patterns over the Congo basin and impactson runoff (1903-2010)

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