Impact of climate change in Mexican winegrape regions

Abstract

We analysed the current climate of seven winegrowing regions of Mexico and their possible changes during the 21st century. Various bioclimatic indices were calculated with observations and simulations over a wide domain that covers Mexico and the south and southwest United States. We used two regional climate models (RegCM4.7 and RCA4) for historical (1981–2010), near future (NF: 2021–2050) and far future (FF: 2070–2099) periods under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Both models reproduced the main characteristics of the Mediterranean and semiarid climates typical of the winegrape regions with some biases. Despite the errors, the models suggest similar future changes during the growing season (GS: April–October) in winegrape regions. Increases in temperature (~1.2°C) are expected in the NF, which could produce an early start from the growth (mid‐March) season to the harvest. More significant changes are expected in the FF under the RCP8.5 scenario; temperature during April–October may increase ~4°C, and growing degree‐days (GDD) and minimum temperature could also increase (~700 and 4.5°C, respectively), especially in the northern Mexican high plateau, substantially reducing the suitable areas for viticulture. In Baja California (BC) the suitable years for viticulture may decline by 30%–50%, suggesting an increase in the interannual uncertainty. Moreover, in BC and California the number of cool nights (Tmin < 12°C) could be reduced during the current harvest season (September) affecting winegrape acidity and flavour. Therefore, the viticulture sector and the wine industry may need to implement early adaptation/mitigation measures to overcome these possible changes and winegrape phenology shifts.

New Insights into the Production of Assyrtiko Wines from the Volcanic Terroir of Santorini Island Using Lachancea thermotolerans

“…Climate change is a threat to grapevine growers and the wine industry. Indeed, a variety of bioclimatic indices have been developed in order to scrutinize productivity in the field, accompanied by possible adaptation strategies [50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. At the winemaking level, the proposed strategies include chemical and microbiological acidification [61].…”

Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield

“…Therefore, the highest regional yield was ~13.5 tons/ha in 1982, and in the last years, it has decreased 52% (Figure 1); a negative trend in yield has been observed since 1996, and there is no sign of recovery. This trend may continue, as climate change is expected to produce more interannual uncertainty in the region [1].…”

“…Baja California is the second largest producer of industrial winegrapes in Mexico after Zacatecas [1] and the only state in Mexico with a Mediterranean climate. According to the Mexican Vitiviniculture Council, about 75% of the national wine production [2] and 33.6% of the national winegrape production are concentrated in the state [3].…”

“…Climate 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 17 is no sign of recovery. This trend may continue, as climate change is expected to produce more interannual uncertainty in the region [1]. Winegrape cultivation is highly sensitive to climate variations [7][8][9][10][11].…”

“…It has been shown that in warmer winters and springs, the grape growing and harvest seasons are brought forward by 18 to 24 days [19]. In Baja California, this early onset of the growing season is also expected with global warming affecting grape phenology, which in turn may produce negative changes in the wine quality [1,20].…”