Impact of climate change on cayenne pepper availability in Sleman District, Yogyakarta with dynamic system modelling

Abstract

The availability of cayenne pepper in Sleman District is influenced by cayenne pepper production factors and demand of consumers. Climate change greatly affects the demand and supply of cayenne pepper. The value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in the dynamic system model is 5.18%. The simulation of Cayenne Pepper availability scenarios in the Sleman District that was made scenarios by rule of the Government to increase of planting area by 20 ha per year. The other scenarios were changing a temperature increase 1 degree Celsius and increase of 2 degrees Celsius. The result of the research showed that first scenario made the supply of cayenne pepper decrease 15 %/year. The second scenario made the supply of cayenne pepper will be decrease up to 30 %/year in 2024-2030. It means that the temperature change can influence significantly with the supply of cayenne pepper in Sleman District. Moreover, the supply has not been fulfil to the very high demand by consumers of households, Industries and Horeca (Hotel, restaurant and catering) in this district.