Impact of Climate Change on the Spatio-Temporal Variation in Groundwater Storage in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is one of the world’s four major bay areas. Groundwater is indispensable in ensuring water supply for human production and living, as well as social and economic development. Studying the spatial–temporal variation in groundwater storage (GWS) and exploring the impact of climate change on GWS is of great significance for water resource management in the GBA. In this work, we conducted a simulation using the Community Land Model version 5.0 (CLM5.0) and combined it with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to calculate GWS in the GBA. In addition, based on the multiple linear regression model, we quantitatively assessed the effects of different climate factors on the change in GWS in the GBA. Comparisons with groundwater wells, automatic weather stations, and satellite observations demonstrated reasonable results. Our results showed that precipitation and evapotranspiration are the main factors affecting the change in GWS in the GBA. Precipitation dominates GWS anomaly changes in areas where wetting and precipitation vary drastically, such as the northern part of Foshan. GWS is closely related to evapotranspiration, in which water and heat changes are significant.