Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges

Abstract

The impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate are increasingly well understood, but the mirror question of how climate changes affect volcanic systems and processes, which we term “climate-volcano impacts”, remains understudied. Accelerating research on this topic is critical in view of rapid climate change driven by anthropogenic activities. Over the last two decades, we have improved our understanding of how mass distribution on the Earth’s surface, in particular changes in ice and water distribution linked to glacial cycles, affects mantle melting, crustal magmatic processing and eruption rates. New hypotheses on the impacts of climate change on eruption processes have also emerged, including how eruption style and volcanic plume rise are affected by changing surface and atmospheric conditions, and how volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle, radiative forcing and climate impacts are modulated by background climate conditions. Future improvements in past climate reconstructions and current climate observations, volcanic eruption records and volcano monitoring, and numerical models will contribute to boost research on climate-volcano impacts. Important mechanisms remain to be explored, such as how changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation will affect the volcanic ash lifecycle. Fostering a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to climate-volcano impacts is critical to gain a full picture of how ongoing climate changes may affect the environmental and societal impacts of volcanic activity.

Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming-driven increase in heavy rainfall

“…The role of Earth's subaerial volcanism in driving past climate changes has been substantial [1]—due in large part to the radiative and chemical effects of erupted gases and aerosols [2]—and it is anticipated to drive further variability in the future [3,4]. In turn, variations in climate have also been posited to drive volcanic activity [5–9]. Mechanisms such as the isostatic unloading of the crust due to warming-induced glacial retreat and ice-cap melt [10,11] or crustal stress changes generated by changing sea levels [12] have been proposed to promote volcanic activity over a range of spatio-temporal scales.…”