Impact of Climate Change on the Streamflow Modulated by Changes in Precipitation and Temperature in the North Latitude Watershed of Nepal

Abstract

It is unambiguous that climate change alters the intensity and frequency of precipitation and temperature distribution at the global and local levels. The rate of change in temperature in the northern latitudes is higher than the worldwide average. The annual distribution of precipitation over the Himalayas in the northern latitudes shows substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Precipitation and temperature are the major driving factors that impact the streamflow and water availability in the basin, illustrating the importance of research on the impact of climate change on streamflow by varying the precipitation and temperature in the Thuli Bheri River Basin (TBRB). Multiple climate models were used to project and evaluate the precipitation and temperature distribution changes in temporal and spatial domains. To analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow in the basin, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used. The climate projection was carried out in three future time windows. The result shows that the precipitation fluctuates between approximately +12% and +50%, the maximum temperature varies between −7% and +7%, and the minimum temperature rises from +0.7% to +5% in intermediate- and high-emission scenarios. In contrast, the streamflow in the basin varies from −40% to +85%. Thus, there is a significant trend in the temperature increase and precipitation reduction in the basin. Further, the relationship between precipitation and temperature with streamflow shows a substantial dependency between them. The variability in precipitation and streamflow is successfully represented by the water yield in the basin, which plays an important role in the sustainability of the water-related projects in the basin and downstream to it. This also helps quantify the amount of water available for hydropower generation, agricultural production, and the water ecosystem in the TBRB.

Impact of climate change on water availability in Marsyangdi river basin, Nepal

“…The regional climate projections have been produced within the CORDEX‐South Asia initiative (Jones et al ., 2011) Three regional climate models, CNRM‐CM5‐CCAM (CNRM), ACCESS1‐CCAM (ACCESS) and MPI‐ESM‐LR‐CSIRO‐CCAM, were found to be suitable for the mountainous catchment and were selected based on previous research (McGregor, 2005; Aryal et al ., 2019; Bhatta et al ., 2020; Shrestha et al ., 2020; 2021; Maharjan et al ., 2021). The results of a model intercomparison project showed that CCAM is a good model for reproducing the climatic features of Southeast Asia (Fu et al ., 2005).…”

Water Flux Prediction in Direct Contact Membrane Distillation Subject to Inorganic Fouling

“…Since the 1960s, water scarcity has grown to a great extent, and the proportion of the world's population living under chronic water scarcity (<1000 m 3 /per capita/year) rose from 9% (280 million people) in 1960 to 35% (2.3 billion) in 2005 [1]. Climate change also exacerbates this problem by changing precipitation and evaporation patterns, which in turn modify freshwater resources collected from rivers and aquifers [2][3][4][5].…”

The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regime of the Transboundary River Shu Basin (Kazakhstan–Kyrgyzstan): Forecast for 2050

“…The wavelet spectral analysis for unevenly sampled time series was proposed in the northwestern Mediterranean basin [7]. To analyse the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow in a river basin located in the northern latitude of Nepal, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used [8].…”

“…Therefore, the water discharge increase rate observed for 2001-2017 was adopted in the computation based on extrapolation until the projected year 2050. An alternative way to assess the projection and changes in meteorological factors and streamflow, including water yield, is to use specific climate models under different emission scenarios [8]. The trend analysis of the average annual temperature at the weather stations for the period of parallel observations (1959-2017) demonstrated an unambiguously positive tendency, with an increase of 1-2 • C on average (Figure 2).…”

“…Therefore, the water discharge increase rate observed for 2001-2017 was adopted in the computation based on extrapolation until the projected year 2050. An alternative way to assess the projection and changes in meteorological factors and streamflow, including water yield, is to use specific climate models under different emission scenarios [8].…”