Impact of climate change on “evaporation paradox” in province of Jiangsu in southeastern China

Abstract

Contrary to the common expectation that the reference evapotranspiration (ETo), which is an indicator of the atmospheric evaporation capability, increases in warming climate, the decline of the ETo has been reported worldwide, and this contradiction between the expected increasing ETo and the observed decreasing one is now termed the “evaporation paradox”. Based on the updated meteorological data (1960–2019), we separately detected the spatiotemporal characteristics and the causes of the “evaporation paradox” in three subregions, namely Huaibei, Jianghuai, and Sunan, and throughout the entire province of Jiangsu in southeastern China. Different from the reported continuous unidirectional variations in the ETo, in the province of Jiangsu, it generally showed a decreasing trend before 1990 but followed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, which led to the different characteristics of the “evaporation paradox” in the periods from 1960 to 1989, from 1990 to 2019, and from 1960 to 2019. In the first 30 years, the reduction of the wind speed (WS) was the main reason for the decreased ETo, which consequently gave rise to the “evaporation paradox” in spring and winter in the Huaibei region and only in winter in the two other subregions and throughout the entire province. We noticed that the “evaporation paradox” in spring in the Sunan region was expressed by the decreased daily mean air temperature (Tmean) and the increased ETo which was chiefly induced by the decreased relative humidity (RH) and the increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD). After 1990, the decreased WS also dominated the decreased ETo and resulted in the “evaporation paradox” in winter in the Jianghuai region. Furthermore, the decreased sunshine hour (SH) was the main factor influencing the decreased ETo, thereby inducing the “evaporation paradox” in summer and autumn in the Jianghuai region and only in autumn in the Huaibei region and throughout the whole province from 1990 to 2019. In the whole study period from 1960 to 2019, the decreased SH was also found to be responsible for the decreased ETo and for the “evaporation paradox” in summer in all the subregions and throughout the whole province. However, regarding the “evaporation paradox” in autumn, in winter, and in the entire year in the Huaibei region and throughout the whole province, the observed decreased ETo was largely due to the reduced WS from 1960 to 2019. In summary, in addition to the air temperature, the ETo has shifted due to the other meteorological variables (especially the WS, the SH, and the VPD) and shaped the unique spatiotemporal characteristics of the “evaporation paradox” in the province of Jiangsu in southeastern China. Moreover, future studies and simulations addressing the regional climate change and hydrological cycles should take account of the changeable key meteorological variables in different subregions and seasons of the province of Jiangsu.

Evapotranspiration Trends and Interactions in Light of the Anthropogenic Footprint and the Climate Crisis: A Review

“…The Evaporation paradox is the reported decreasing trends in PE (or RET) until the mid-1980s (or mid-1990s for regions in USA and Australia; Table 1) which contradicted the anticipated long-term increasing trends in the atmospheric evaporative demand, in a concurrently warming atmosphere [54,55]. The latter phenomenon is important since PE is considered "a clue to the direction of the change in AET" [56].…”

Spatiotemporal Climate Variation and Analysis of Dry-Wet Trends for 1960–2019 in Jiangsu Province, Southeastern China

“…We also analyzed the effects of SSH and WS, which were included in only a few previous studies, and found that both contributed positively to the HI trend in Jiangsu province (Figure 5). Our previous study found that, for Jiangsu province in 1960-2019, the decrease in RH and SSH decreased ET o [69], which increased HI.…”

Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses

“…Indeed, while the projections in AED are expected to follow the predicted increase in temperature, AET is more correlated to the decreasing rainfall. Moreover, evidence of the so-called “evaporation paradox” (Dimitriadou and Nikolakopoulos 2021 ; Qin et al 2021 ) has been reported worldwide, with observed pan evaporation or RET that have decreased along with the continuous increase in temperature over the past decades. All this suggests the use of more integrated approaches to better quantify the surface-atmosphere interactions under climate change (Milly and Dunne 2016 ; Tramblay et al 2018 ).…”