Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution Patterns of Alpine Vegetation in the Hengduan Mountains Region, China

He, Yixin; Xiong, Qiaoli; Yu, Lan; Yan, Wenbo; Qu, Xinxing

doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-20-00010.1

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…(see Figure 1a), while their lower limits become unsuitable for them. The prediction that highland species expand their distribution areas (Figure 3) is in line with the findings of other studies in the Himalayas (Anderson et al, 2020; He et al, 2019, 2020; Yan & Tang, 2019) and in alpine ecosystems in general (Rew et al, 2020). This suggests that warming is likely to make a large area of intermountain valleys and highland plateaus situated around 4500 m a.s.l.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

et al. 2022

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Global warming may force montane species to shift upward to keep pace with their shifting climate niche. How species differences in such distribution shifts depend on their elevational positions, elevation‐dependent warming rates, and other environmental constraints, or plant functional traits is poorly understood. Here, we analyzed for 137 Himalayan tree species how distribution shifts vary with elevational niche positions, environmental constraints, and their functional traits. We developed ecological niche models using MaxEnt by combining species survey and botanical collections data with 19 environmental predictors. Species distributions were projected to 1985 and 2050 conditions, and elevational range parameters and distribution areas were derived. Under the worst‐case RCP 8.5 scenario, species are predicted to shift, on average, 3 m/year in optimum elevation, and have 33% increase in distribution area. Highland species showed faster predicted elevational shifts than lowland species. Lowland and highland species are predicted to expand in distribution area in contrast to mid‐elevation species. Tree species for which species distribution models are driven by responses to temperature, aridity, or soil clay content showed the strongest predicted upslope shifts. Tree species with conservative trait values that enable them to survive resource poor conditions (i.e., narrow conduits) showed larger predicted upslope shifts than species with wide conduits. The predicted average upslope shift in maximum elevation (8 m/year) is >2 times faster than the current observations indicating that many species will not be able to track climate change and potentially go extinct, unless they are supported by active conservation measures, such as assisted migration. Abstract in Nepali is available with online material

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

et al. 2022

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“…The increase of annual precipitation is also unfavorable for vegetation growth. This is consistent with the conclusion drawn by He when they studied the relationship between precipitation and vegetation ecosystem in Yunnan [34].…”

Section: Influence Of Vegetation and Meteorological Factors On Hchosupporting

confidence: 92%

Spatial and temporal distribution of HCHO and its pollution sources based on satellite remote sensing: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Huang

Geng

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

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In recent years, with the acceleration of industrialization and the expansion of urban scale, air pollution including formaldehyde (HCHO) becomes more and more serious. In order to study HCHO pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB), the temporal and spatial evolution of atmospheric HCHO and its influencing factors were analyzed by using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) during 2012-2021. The results showed that the concentration of YEB HCHO column was unevenly distributed, with high values concentrated in Anhui, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Hubei provinces. During the past 10 years, the concentration of YEB HCHO column varied between 10.28 and 17.19×1015molec/cm2, and the lowest concentration of HCHO column was 13.16×1015molec/cm2 in 2015. However, it reached the peak value in 2018 (14.93×1015molec/cm2). In natural sources, normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and leaf area index (LAI) had greater influence on YEB HCHO, and the correlation was -0.91~0.97 and -0.9~0.95, respectively. The positive correlation area between HCHO and Mean annual temperature (MAT) reached 93%. The contribution of high-intensity human activity areas to HCHO cannot be underestimated. Industrial and civil sources have great influence on HCHO. In addition, the potential source of HCHO in Shanghai is affected by local emission sources, trans-regional potential sources, northwest air mass and ocean airflow.

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“…Although the species-suitable area will be limited to higher altitudes, it is observed to be restricted to the elevation threshold of the actual species range. Those results are in accordance with the work of He et al [63], who predicted that suitable areas for alpine vegetation will shift from the lowest and highest elevations and be limited to a suitable range between 4500 and 5000 m. Moreover, Jiang et al [56] found that the future potential distribution of three Fritillaria species will shift towards higher altitudes without exceeding the actual optimum elevation range of the species. The Montpellier Maple suitable area is predicted to lose more than 99% of its value, decreasing from 4.76% to 0.05% of the total study area under the RCP 8.5 scenario for the 2060-2080 time period.…”

Section: Suitability Distribution In the Futuresupporting

confidence: 90%

Observed and Predicted Geographic Distribution of Acer monspessulanum L. Using the MaxEnt Model in the Context of Climate Change

Aouinti

Moutahir

Touhami

et al. 2022

Forests

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Acer monspessulanum (Montpellier Maple) is an important deciduous tree species native to the Mediterranean region. It is largely distributed in the southern part of western Europe; however, it is geographically less present in north Africa and western Asia. The effects of the most significant environmental variables for its habitat suitability, and climate change, are unclear in terms of the future changes to its distribution. The objective of the present study was to model the current and future geographical potential distribution of the Montpellier Maple in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia using maximum entropy modeling software (MaxEnt). The value of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of MaxEnt was used to analyze the model’s performance. More than 5800 well-distributed presence points, elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness index (TWI), natural vegetation characteristics from MODIS products, and 19 bioclimatic variables were used to conduct the study. Regarding the projections of the species distribution under climate change, 17 global climatic models were used under two RCP scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) for the 2040–2060 and the 2060–2080 time periods. The results show that temperature seasonality (40% contribution to the model), elevation (33.5%), mean annual temperature (6.9%), mean annual precipitation (6.2%), and max temperature of the warmest month (4.5%) were identified as the primary factors that accounted for the current distribution of the Montpellier Maple. Under the climate change scenarios, MaxEnt predicts a large decrease in the species suitability area, with a shift towards the southwestern regions of the species distribution, especially to the mountainous zones of the Moroccan Atlas. Our results show that climate largely limits the distribution of the Montpellier Maple in the Mediterranean basin, as its change in the future is expected to significantly reduce the suitable area by more than 99% from the historical climate conditions, to reach only 16,166.9 and 9874.7 km2 under the moderate RCP4.5 and extreme RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. Our study can provide a good view of the future changes in the distribution of Montpellier Maple for its protection and sustainable management.

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Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution Patterns of Alpine Vegetation in the Hengduan Mountains Region, China

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 7 publications

References 27 publications

Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

Spatial and temporal distribution of HCHO and its pollution sources based on satellite remote sensing: a case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Observed and Predicted Geographic Distribution of Acer monspessulanum L. Using the MaxEnt Model in the Context of Climate Change

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