Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Edwards, Martin; Richardson, Anthony J.

doi:10.1038/nature02808

Cited by 1,813 publications

(1,411 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…A large number of studies have reported that the timing and magnitude of seasonal plankton blooms are shifting in response to climate change (Adrian et al 2006;Edwards and Richardson 2004;Meis et al 2009;Shimoda et al 2011). Plankton blooms are important features in seasonal aquatic environments where they drive many ecosystem and community processes and are a major source of energy input for higher trophic levels (Hjermann et al 2007;Smayda 1997;Winder and Cloern 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton to changing temperature and light conditions

et al. 2012

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Shifts in the timing and magnitude of the spring plankton bloom in response to climate change have been observed across a wide range of aquatic systems. We used meta-analysis to investigate phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton communities in mesocosms subjected to experimental manipulations of temperature and light intensity. Systems differed with respect to the dominant mesozooplankton (copepods in seawater and daphnids in freshwater). Higher water temperatures advanced the bloom timing of most functional plankton groups in both marine and freshwater systems. In contrast to timing, responses of bloom magnitudes were more variable among taxa and systems and were influenced by light intensity and trophic interactions. Increased light levels increased the magnitude of the spring peaks of most phytoplankton taxa and of total phytoplankton biomass. Intensified size-selective grazing of copepods in warming scenarios affected phytoplankton size structure and lowered intermediate (20-200 lm)-sized phytoplankton in marine systems. In contrast, plankton peak magnitudes in freshwater systems were unaffected by temperature, but decreased at lower light intensities, suggesting that filter feeding daphnids are sensitive to changes in algal carrying capacity as mediated by light supply. Our analysis confirms the general shift toward earlier blooms at increased temperature in both marine and freshwater systems and supports predictions that effects of climate change on plankton production will vary among sites, depending on resource limitation and species composition.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spring phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton to changing temperature and light conditions

et al. 2012

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“…Since recently, the impact of climate variability on aquatic ecosystems has been in the focus of aquatic research (e.g., Wiltshire and Manly 2004;Edwards and Richardson 2004;Winder and Schindler 2004). The relation between climate and the ecosystem is understood as an abiotic control, possibly subject to anthropogenic influences, that causes a biotic response, (e.g., Engel et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the phytoplankton community at Helgoland, North Sea: lessons from single spot time series analyses

et al. 2012

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In recent regime shift analyses, the phytoplankton compartment of the marine food web was essentially represented by phytoplankton color or chlorophyll concentration. A detection of changes directly at the species level is highly desirable. The Helgoland Roads data series, a collection of high frequency long-term time series comprising biological and physico-chemical components of the southern North Sea, allow such an investigation at the level of single species. Aiming at a detection and characterization of habitat and community changes in the observation period (1962 until the end of 2008), we selected six species as representatives of certain classes, for example, benthic or neritic species, and applied a combination of novel analysis methods-a fitness-based analysis of the realized niche, a bloom-triggered averaging and a Markovian analysis of co-occurrence and succession patterns-to related abundance time series and concurrent environmental parameter time series. We found a general trend toward enlargement of niche size and shifts of the niche position, interesting salinity patterns around bloom events of two species, and statistically highly significant changes of a phytoplankton community segment after 1965 and after 1998. Interpreting our observations in ecological terms leads to the formulation of testable hypotheses.

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“…Although this is the case, the observed relationship between temperature and productivity underscores the importance of continuing to monitor the species in Alaska where warming is expected to be most intense (IPCC 2013). In addition to temperature and precipitation effects, climate change and ocean acidification could change the base of the marine food web (Edwards & Richardson, 2004; Kroeker, Kordas, Crim, & Singh, 2010; Lam, Cheung, & Sumaila, 2016), the timing of salmon runs (Quinn, Hodgson, Flynn, Hilborn, & Rogers, 2007), and distribution of nesting substrate (Miller, Wilson, Sherriff, & Walton, 2017). These factors may influence bald eagle nesting populations in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nest use dynamics of an undisturbed population of bald eagles

Wilson

Schmidt

Mangipane

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Management or conservation targets based on demographic rates should be evaluated within the context of expected population dynamics of the species of interest. Wild populations can experience stable, cyclical, or complex dynamics, therefore undisturbed populations can provide background needed to evaluate programmatic success. Many raptor species have recovered from large declines caused by environmental contaminants, making them strong candidates for ongoing efforts to understand population dynamics and ecosystem processes in response to human‐caused stressors. Dynamic multistate occupancy models are a useful tool for analyzing species dynamics because they leverage the autocorrelation inherent in long‐term monitoring datasets to obtain useful information about the dynamic properties of population or reproductive states. We analyzed a 23‐year bald eagle monitoring dataset in a dynamic multistate occupancy modeling framework to assess long‐term nest occupancy and reproduction in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska. We also used a hierarchical generalized linear model to understand changes in nest productivity in relation to environmental factors. Nests were most likely to remain in the same nesting state between years. Most notably, successful nests were likely to remain in use (either occupied or successful) and had a very low probability of transitioning to an unoccupied state in the following year. There was no apparent trend in the proportion of nests used by eagles through time, and the probability that nests transitioned into or out of the successful state was not influenced by temperature or salmon availability. Productivity was constant over the course of the study, although warm April minimum temperatures were associated with increased chick production. Overall our results demonstrate the expected nesting dynamics of a healthy bald eagle population that is largely free of human disturbance and can be used as a baseline for the expected dynamics for recovering bald eagle populations in the contiguous 48 states.

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Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Cited by 1,813 publications

References 24 publications

Spring phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton to changing temperature and light conditions

Spring phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton to changing temperature and light conditions

Changes in the phytoplankton community at Helgoland, North Sea: lessons from single spot time series analyses

Nest use dynamics of an undisturbed population of bald eagles

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