Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species

Abstract

Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.

Response of distribution patterns of two closely related species in Taxus genus to climate change since last inter‐glacial

“…Since the two species are mainly distributed in the mountain areas, they are relatively less influenced by topograghy, soil, and human behaviors. Therefore, these three types of environment variables were assumed to be constant, as reported in previous studies (Evans et al, 2020 ; Lv et al, 2021 ; Zhang et al, 2019 ).…”

Loss of fungal symbionts and changes in pollinator availability caused by climate change will affect the distribution and survival chances of myco-heterotrophic orchid species

“…While obviously species with broader environmental tolerance have higher survival chances than more specialized taxa, the fragility of ecological interactions can further affect persistence of widely distributed organisms. Studies on future distribution of European orchids are rather scarce and while some taxa ( Nigritella nigra 91 , Pseudorchis albida 92 ) are predicted to lose their suitable niches across their ranges, others are expected to experience a poleward range shift (some Orchis 93 , Ophrys insectifera 94 , some Epipactis 90 ). Noteworthy, none of the previous research considered the importance of mycorrhizal fungi on Orchidaceae distribution and most of the published analyses ignored also the future availability of orchid pollen vectors.…”

Predicting the potential distribution of 12 threatened medicinal plants on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, with a maximum entropy model

“…The endangered status of the threatened medicinal plants on the QTP. we assumed that these two types of environment variables were constant, as reported in previous studies (Evans et al, 2020;Lv et al, 2021;Zhang et al, 2019).…”