Impact of climate change on cereal production: evidence from lower-middle-income countries

Abstract

This study empirically examines the impact of climate change on cereal production in selected lower-middle-income countries with a balanced panel dataset spanning the period 1971-2016. The study uses average annual temperature, average annual rainfall, and CO 2 emissions to measure climate change. Besides this, cultivated land under cereal production, and rural population are also used as the control variables. Second generation unit root tests, i.e., CIPS, and CADF, are used to test the stationarity of the variables.Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) model is used to overcome the issues of cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation, and group-wise heteroscedasticity. The ndings show that a rise in the temperature reduces the cereal production in lower-middleincome countries. While other climate variables, i.e., rainfall and CO 2, affect cereal production positively. The sensitivity of long run elasticity has been checked with the help of Driscoll-Kraay standard regression. The adverse effects of temperature on cereal production are likely to pose severe implications for food security. In conclusion, the paper recommends that governments and cereal producers should carry out adaptation activities and programmes to cope with the negative effects of temperature on cereal production.

Impact of Climate Change on Rice and Wheat Yield in Punjab State of India: A District-Level Analysis

“…The coefficient of rainfall is showing a negative impact on rice productivity at 10% level. It is contradicting to various studies which have shown a positive effect of increased rainfall on agricultural productivity (Kumar et al, 2021). Further, the negative impact can be observed due to an increase in rainfall during the ripening stage (Abbas & Mayo, 2021).…”

“…Asian country-based studies (Praveen & Sharma, 2019;Baig et al, 2020;Janjua et al, 2014;Ahsan et al, 2020) and Punjab region-specific studies (Grover & Upadhyay, 2014;Hundal & Kaur, 2007;Kumar & Sidana, 2019;Mahmood et al, 2012) have shown that rainfall and temperature are affecting rice, wheat and other crops positively and negatively depending upon when the extreme or scarce rainfall is received, variation in maximum and minimum temperature. Kumar et al (2021), Kumar & Sidana (2019); Appiah et al (2018); Zaied & Zouabi (2015) have looked into all of the concerns, including serial correlation, panel group-wise heteroscedasticity, and cross-sectional dependence. But there is a notable paucity of empirical research focusing specifically on analysing the impact of changing climate pattern on most cultivated crops in Punjab, i.e., wheat and rice.…”

“…After FMOLS, DOLS and PMG, Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test has been used to identify the causality amongst the variables used in the study. Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) has given an advanced version of the Granger causality test where a homogenous non-causality hypothesis was tested, which implies there is no such causal link between two variables in all the cross-sections units (Ndoricimpa, 2014), whereas the alternative hypothesis shows that a causal relationship exists among the variables (Kumar et al, 2021). The test can be represented in the following equation:…”

Impacts of Climate and Environmental Change on Bean Cultivation in China

“…In addition, carbon emissions increase each year. Kumar, P. et al indicated a positive relationship between carbon emissions and cereal production [40]; Pickson, R. B et al stated that CO 2 emissions have a significant negative impact on cereal production in the long run [30] and show a unidirectional causality and Ahsan F et al had the same conclusion as Pickson, R. B et al on the relationship between cereal production and CO 2 emissions, but their study showed a bidirectional causal relationship between CO 2 emissions and cereal production [35]. These findings are not the same as the relationship between bean yields and CO 2 emissions in this paper, but this does not mean that it has no effect on the growth of bean crops in China.…”

Asymmetric effects of cereal crops on agricultural economic growth: a case study of India

“…It provides raw materials for industrial use for hastening up industrialization. Agriculture involves crops production, forestry, livestock husbandry, fishery, man's use and consumption, and processing and marketing of its products (Nesheim et al 2015;Kanianska 2016;Kumar et al 2021a). Moreover, it creates ample employment opportunities for unskilled or rural landless workers, which help poverty alleviation and improve the overall social well-being of the people (Pingali et al 2019).…”