Impact of climate change on the distribution of a giant land snail from South America: predicting future trends for setting conservation priorities on native malacofauna

Abstract

Many land snails are vulnerable to climate change as a consequence of small distribution ranges and poor dispersal. South America is a diverse region in terms of land snail fauna, but studies about the impacts of climate change on molluscan biodiversity are virtually nonexistent. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how habitat suitability may change in a warming planet. In this study, we examine potential impacts of climate change on a giant land snail (Megalobulimus sanctipauli) from the Atlantic Forest to predict future shifts in its potential distribution, and to identify protected areas that may contain suitable habitat for setting conservation priorities. Using a maximum entropy algorithm, we modeled the species' potential distribution across South America under current climatic conditions and projected the results onto two climate change scenarios for two time frames. A 2.17 % of South America on the Atlantic Forest was predicted to be currently suitable for the species, comprising the border area among Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Prognosis of future distribution showed a trend to a northern retraction, but a southern expansion of current potential range. More than 150 protected areas were identified to contain climatically suitable habitat for the species, but on the less optimistic outlook only~1545 km 2 of protected areas (0.009 % of South America) would remain suitable for the species by the end of the century. Our findings are expected to improve understanding of climate change impacts on native giant land snails and to contribute in conservation efforts on this malacofauna.

Potential distribution of the invasive freshwater dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides (Levander) Langhans (Dinophyta) in South America

“…, Beltramino et al. ). Seventy‐five percent of occurrences were randomly selected and employed in the model training, while the remaining 25% were employed in the model testing.…”

“…Model of the potential distribution of C. furcoides was estimated by using a maximum entropy algorithm in the MaxEnt software v. 3.3.3k (Phillips et al 2006, Phillips andDud ık 2008). This algorithm models the species' ecological niche (a set of ecological conditions habitable for a species) by examining the relationship between the locations of known species' presence and the environmental characteristics of that region and then extrapolating from this the regions where similar conditions take place in the study area (Vogler et al 2013, Beltramino et al 2015. Seventy-five percent of occurrences were randomly selected and employed in the model training, while the remaining 25% were employed in the model testing.…”

Aspects of biology of Megalobulimus paranaguensis (Gastropoda, Acavoidea) in the coastal plain of the Brazilian southeast

“…Recently, aspects of the ecology and distribution of some species of Megalobulimus were studied in more detail (Beltramino, 2013(Beltramino, , 2014Beltramino et al, 2015;Miranda & Pecora, 2016), providing important information about their biology and conservation. On the other hand, data about the reproductive biology of Megalobulimus species are still scarce, and restricted to the studies of Pinto- deOliveira et al (1984), on Megalobulimus bronni (Pfeiffer, 1847), Sobreira & Molina (2002), on Megalobulimus aff.…”

Shelter, ecophysiology and conservation status of Plectostylus araucanus (Pulmonata: Bothriembryontidae) in the fragmented Maulino Forest, central Chile

“…On the other hand, several authors (Araya, 2016;Araya & Catalán, 2014;Jackson & Jackson, 2011;Valdovinos & Stuardo, 1988) highlight the deficiency in information about ecology, which is still poorly understood and represent critical gaps, especially concerning changes in land use and global warming. These threats represent some of the most important drivers in biodiversity loss of terrestrial and freshwater mollusks worldwide (Beltramino et al, 2015;Cordellier et al, 2012;Lydeard et al, 2004;Pearce & Paustian, 2013;Régnier et al, 2009Régnier et al, , 2015.…”