Impact of Climate Change on Olive Crop Production in Italy

Abstract

The effects of climate change on agricultural systems raise important uncertainties about the future productivity and suitability of crops, especially in areas suffering from intense environmental changes. Olive groves occupy Mediterranean areas characterized by seasonal temporary droughts, which cause this cultivation to be highly dependent on local microclimatic conditions. Olive crop production can be reliably estimated using pollen intensity metrics together with post-pollination environmental conditions. In this study, we applied this kind of statistics-based models to identify the most relevant meteorological variables during the post-pollination periods for olive fruit production. Olive pollen time-series for the period of 1999–2012 was analyzed in 16 Italian provinces. Minimum and maximum temperature during spring and summer (March–August) showed a negative relationship with olive production, while precipitation always showed a positive correlation. The increase in aridity conditions observed in areas of Italy during the summer represents an important risk of decreasing olive crop production. The effect of climate change on the olive production trend is not clear because of the interactions between human and environmental factors, although some areas might show an increase in productivity in the near future under different climate change scenarios. However, as more drastic changes in temperature or precipitation take place, the risk to olive production will be considerably greater.

Predicting the Water Requirement for Rice Production as Affected by Projected Climate Change in Bihar, India

“…The rise in temperature (Figure 2a,b) would increase the water demand and decrease the yield; however, an increase in CO 2 concentration would induce the decrease in water demand. It has also been predicted that the increase in temperature (Figure 2a,b) and decrease in solar radiation (Figure 3) would decrease the phenological days [53,54]. The decrease in solar radiation (Figure 3) would affect the photosynthetic process and metabolic growth in rice plants, which could result in the reduction of rice yield [55].…”

Soil Productivity Degradation in a Long-Term Eroded Olive Orchard under Semiarid Mediterranean Conditions

“…This is under a climate change context, where a reduction in Mediterranean agricultural yields is expected [97], including in olive groves [98][99][100]. Therefore, adaptation measures are required to ensure the sustainability of the olive sector [17,[101][102][103].…”

Évolution, modélisation et cartographie des rendements de l’oliveraie dans la province de Jaen en Espagne (1959-2018)

“…Les amplitudes thermiques diurnes, importantes dans cette région continentale et montagneuse, ayant particulièrement augmenté depuis la fin des années 80, des températures nocturnes douces sont favorables à la maturation des olives pendant l'été, évitant au fruit un trop fort contraste avec les températures diurnes très élevées. En revanche, alors que plusieurs auteurs alertent sur les seuils thermiques maximaux supportés par l'olivier (Gálan et al, 2008 ;Orlandi et al, 2020), les températures maximales n'interviennent pas dans le modèle pluvial et sont même favorables aux rendements en irrigué. Une hypothèse serait que ces températures diurnes élevées favoriseraient la maturation des fruits, tout en étant compensées par une bonne alimentation hydrique du sol par l'irrigation.…”