Impact of climate change on hydropower generation in Rio Jubones Basin, Ecuador

Hasan, Mohammad Mehedi; Wyseure, Guido

doi:10.1016/j.wse.2018.07.002

Cited by 59 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…C2 C = a 2,1 LAI 2 + a 2,2 LAI + a 2,3 ; function is fitted based on the entire estimates. 3 ; functions are fitted separately in the growing season (May to October) and non-growing (November to April) season. C4 C = b 2,1 P(t) + b 2,2 T m (t) + b 2,3 ; function is fitted based on the entire estimates.…”

Section: Parameter Scenario Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, increases of precipitation and temperature occur in high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere; global surface temperature change for the end of 21st century is expected to exceed 1.5 • C for most of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) [2]. The changes and variability of climate conditions can significantly affect catchment hydrological cycles, leading to changes in regional water resources [3]. Therefore, it is of great importance to evaluate catchment runoff variations under the future climate projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Runoff Predicting and Variation Analysis in Upper Ganjiang Basin under Projected Climate Changes

Deng

Wang

2019

Sustainability

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Catchment runoff is significantly affected by climate condition changes. Predicting the runoff and analyzing its variations under future climates play a vital role in water security, water resource management, and the sustainable development of the catchment. In traditional hydrological modeling, fixed model parameters are usually used to transfer the global climate models (GCMs) to runoff, while the hydrologic model parameters may be time-varying. It is more appropriate to use the time-variant parameter for runoff modeling. This is achieved by incorporating the time-variant parameter approach into a two-parameter water balance model (TWBM) through the construction of time-variant parameter functions based on the identified catchment climate indicators. Using the Ganjiang Basin with an outlet of the Dongbei Hydrological Station as the study area, we developed time-variant parameter scenarios of the TWBM model and selected the best-performed parameter functions to predict future runoff and analyze its variations under the climate model projection of the BCC-CSM1.1(m). To synthetically assess the model performance improvements using the time-variant parameter approach, an index ∆ was developed by combining the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the volume error, the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error, and the Kling-Gupta efficiency with equivalent weight. The results show that the TWBM model with time-variant C (evapotranspiration parameter) and SC (water storage capacity of catchment), where growing and non-growing seasons are considered for C, outperformed the model with constant parameters with a ∆ value of approximately 5% and 10% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The mean annual values of runoff predictions under the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) exhibited a decreasing trend over the future three decades (2021-2050) when compared to the runoff simulations in the baseline period , where the values were about −9.9%, −19.5%, −16.6%, and −11.4% for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The decreasing trend of future precipitation exerts impacts on runoff decline. Generally, the mean monthly changes of runoff predictions showed a decreasing trend from January to August for almost all of the RCPs, while an increasing trend existed from September to November, along with fluctuations among different RCPs. This study can provide beneficial references to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on runoff prediction and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

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Section: Parameter Scenario Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff Predicting and Variation Analysis in Upper Ganjiang Basin under Projected Climate Changes

Deng

Wang

2019

Sustainability

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“…The hydropower system is the leading global source of an estimated 71% of total renewable energy. Furthermore, hydropower plant reservoirs can also be used as a tool in minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change and in achieving sustainable development goals [11].…”

Section: Power Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Operation and Maintenance of Hydraulic Structures

Tadda¹,

Ahsan²,

Imteaz³

et al. 2020

Hydraulic Structures - Theory and Applications

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Water is among the most valuable resources that nature has endowed to human beings. Water has cut across all spans of life from cradle to grave. Since time immemorial, man continuously developed methods and techniques to harness the benefits of water and as well to protect himself from the destruction that may be caused by the same water. Therefore, for a hydraulic structure to answer its name, it must be capable of being used smoothly for the purposes it was designed for and also be able to be controlled effectively without the risk of causing any havoc to the environment. Using water, especially for agricultural purposes, cannot be overemphasized. Hence, this chapter discusses the hydraulic structures based on the work they performed, challenges facing hydraulic structures, and management procedures of the hydraulic structures in order to adequately and efficiently serve their purpose.

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“…Similar cases can be found in many other countries including Sri Lanka. However, predicting the available hydropower from already-developed minihydropower plants is a challenging task due to various reasons, including climate variabilities [11]. Nevertheless, the relationship of hydropower generation with rainfall is highly nonlinear [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationships between Hydropower Generation and Rainfall-Gauged and Ungauged Catchments from Sri Lanka

Perera

Rathnayake

2020

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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The relationship between the rainfall and minihydropower generation in a catchment is highly nonlinear. Therefore, the prediction of minihydropower generation is complex. However, the prediction is important in optimizing the control of electricity generation under various environmental conditions. Ongoing climate variabilities have completely changed the minihydropower generation to some parts of the world, and it is significant. Therefore, this paper presents results from two soft-computing studies in searching the relationships between rainfall and the generated hydropower. The first study was carried out for a gauged catchment; however, the second was carried for an ungauged catchment. Results revealed that there is an acceptable correlation in between the rainfall and hydropower generation for the gauged catchment and a marginal contribution to the ungauged catchment.

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Impact of climate change on hydropower generation in Rio Jubones Basin, Ecuador

Cited by 59 publications

References 35 publications

Runoff Predicting and Variation Analysis in Upper Ganjiang Basin under Projected Climate Changes

Runoff Predicting and Variation Analysis in Upper Ganjiang Basin under Projected Climate Changes

Operation and Maintenance of Hydraulic Structures

Relationships between Hydropower Generation and Rainfall-Gauged and Ungauged Catchments from Sri Lanka

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