Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches

Abstract

The G20 countries are the locomotives of economic growth, representing 64% of the global population and including 4.7 billion inhabitants. As a monetary and market value index, real gross domestic product (GDP) is affected by several factors and reflects the economic development of countries. This study aimed to reveal the hidden economic patterns of G20 countries, study the complexity of related economic factors, and analyze the economic reactions taken by policymakers during the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic recession (2019–2020). In this respect, this study employed data-mining techniques of nonparametric classification tree and hierarchical clustering approaches to consider factors such as GDP/capita, industrial production, government spending, COVID-19 cases/population, patient recovery, COVID-19 death cases, number of hospital beds/1000 people, and percentage of the vaccinated population to identify clusters for G20 countries. The clustering approach can help policymakers measure economic indices in terms of the factors considered to identify the specific focus of influences on economic development. The results exhibited significant findings for the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on G20 countries, splitting them into three clusters by sharing different measurements and patterns (harmonies and variances across G20 countries). A comprehensive statistical analysis was performed to analyze endogenous and exogenous factors. Similarly, the classification and regression tree method was applied to predict the associations between the response and independent factors to split the G-20 countries into different groups and analyze the economic recession. Variables such as GDP per capita and patient recovery of COVID-19 cases with values of $12,012 and 82.8%, respectively, were the most significant factors for clustering the G20 countries, with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 91.8%. The results and findings offer some crucial recommendations to handle pandemics in terms of the suggested economic systems by identifying the challenges that the G20 countries have experienced.

Strategi dan Inovasi "Mengganggu" sebagai Antisipasi Resesi 2023

“…Terdapat beberapa faktor pemicu resesi ekonomi global yang dikhawatirkan akan terjadi tahun depan, antara lain keberlanjutan pandemi Covid-19, perang Rusia-Ukraina, tingginya tingkat inflasi, kenaikan suku bunga acuan, dan penurunan permintaan global (T. Ade Surya, 2022). Dalam membantu pembuat kebijakan memahami implikasi ekonomi dari resesi pandemi virus corona, negara-negara G20 melakukan penelitian untuk mengungkap pola ekonomi tersembunyi (Taylan et al, 2022). G20 merupakan forum kerja sama multilateral yang membahas tentang ekonomi internasional.…”

Digital entrepreneurial intentions and actions in China during the COVID-19 pandemic with policy implications

“…Recently, further studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on policy and economy in general, and entrepreneurship in particular, have been published, including a number of special issues ( Ashraf et al, 2022 ; Belitski et al, 2022 ; Grassi and Fantaccini, 2022 ; Narayan, 2022 ; Taylan et al, 2022 ). These recent publications shed light on the economic effects of the pandemic by looking at the macro- and micro-economic effects on economic policy and the survivability of entrepreneurial start-ups as well as the role of financial support, public funding for well-being in both developed and developing countries.…”

Investigating the Casual Impact of Oil Price Dynamics on Inflation Using Wavelet Analysis on G20 Countries

“…To delve deeper, our study focuses explicitly on the three recent oil price downturns : 2008, 2014, and 2020. The oil prices and inflation nexus for G20 economies hold paramount importance for several reasons. Firstly, the G20 economies collectively constitute over 80% of the global GDP (Taylan et al, 2022) and are an important indicator of global economic health when considering their inflationary tendencies. Secondly, oil remains a cornerstone of energy consumption across most G20 economies which leads to its price fluctuations as a potent driver of inflationary pressures (Renou, 2019).…”