Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mobility in ten countries and associated perceived risk for all transport modes

Abstract

The restrictive measures implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have triggered sudden massive changes to travel behaviors of people all around the world. This study examines the individual mobility patterns for all transport modes (walk, bicycle, motorcycle, car driven alone, car driven in company, bus, subway, tram, train, airplane) before and during the restrictions adopted in ten countries on six continents: Australia, Brazil, China, Ghana, India, Iran, Italy, Norway, South Africa and the United States. This cross-country study also aims at understanding the predictors of protective behaviors related to the transport sector and COVID-19. Findings hinge upon an online survey conducted in May 2020 (N = 9,394). The empirical results quantify tremendous disruptions for both commuting and non-commuting travels, highlighting substantial reductions in the frequency of all types of trips and use of all modes. In terms of potential virus spread, airplanes and buses are perceived to be the riskiest transport modes, while avoidance of public transport is consistently found across the countries. According to the Protection Motivation Theory, the study sheds new light on the fact that two indicators, namely income inequality, expressed as Gini index, and the reported number of deaths due to COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants, aggravate respondents’ perceptions. This research indicates that socio-economic inequality and morbidity are not only related to actual health risks, as well documented in the relevant literature, but also to the perceived risks. These findings document the global impact of the COVID-19 crisis as well as provide guidance for transportation practitioners in developing future strategies.

Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova

“…On the other hand, trip frequency before the COVID-19 outbreak has a negative impact on the choice to cancel the journey [23,29,46] for both students and workers. As regards the effects of COVID-19 on educational and working trips, health risk perception plays a fundamental role in trip cancellation decisions [19], in particular for public transport modes [24,65]. This points out that a proper information campaign on the use of such means can significantly impact future travel demand [4,7,31].…”

“…Countermeasures against the diffusion of COVID-19 had a significant impact on mobility [1,12,13,19] because of direct limitations or bans on transport services, forbidden trips, the closure of activities, as well as self-imposed individual restrictions [20]. Many authors reported significant changes in users' travel habits worldwide [7,8,21,22], with variations in the frequency of trips, travel purposes and modal split [12], which may have varied in accordance with country-specific factors [23,24] and socio-economic characteristics of citizens [25]. As regards European nations, comparing trip statistics before and after the pandemic: in Germany, about 60% of persons changed transport mode [14], in particular, the number of people performing monomodal trips rose from 68% to 83% [26]; in Greece, the average number of daily trips decreased by 50% [12]; in the Netherlands, about 80% of people reduced their out-of-home activities and the number of trips decreased by 55% compared to 2019 [9]; in Poland, 50% of people reduced their travel time by more than two thirds [20]; commuting trips dropped by 80% in Spain [13]; in Italy, the number of people reporting no daily trips increased by 27% [24] and the number of internal trips decreased by 50% [27,28], while commuting trips were reduced by 69% [8]; even in Sweden, where restrictions were voluntary, 86% of the population changed their commuting trips with 66% of people who commuted for 5 days a week prior to the pandemic deciding not to travel [29].…”

“…In particular, public transport, despite its fundamental role in everyday mobility needs, was the most affected travel mode [8,30] since it was often perceived as a high-risk environment for contagion [31]. In many countries, a shift from public transport to car and active modes was reported [7]; comparing the pre-COVID-19 period with the pandemic period, in Germany, the number of young adults using public transport dropped from 47% to 19% [26]; in Norway, the number of people stating to never use buses increased by 19% [24]; in Sweden, the modal share of public transport for commuting trips was reduced from 45% to 10% [8]. In Italy, the High Institute for Transport Education and Research (ISFORT) estimated that [28], in 2019, 25% of trips were performed by active modes, 63% by private motorized means and 12% by public transport means; whereas, during the lockdown, the corresponding values became 35%, 61% and 4%, respectively; lastly, after the relaxation of restrictions, 31% of trips by active modes, 61% by private motorized means and 8% on public transport modes were reported.…”

“…Secondly, safety measures on transport means may affect users' perceptions of the health risk of travelling [1,13], thereby significantly modifying mobility behaviours, in particular towards public transport modes [7,16,31]. Thirdly, new attitudes towards active modes and a new range of mobility services (e.g., micro mobility) should be considered when predicting travel demand since they can produce significant variations in future modal share [7,11,14,16,24].…”

Air pollution perception in ten countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

“…Facilitated by globalisation and our hypermobile society (Acter et al 2020 ; SanJuan-Reyaes et al 2020 ; Sarkar et al 2020 ), the COVID-19 pandemic has become another grave issue for humanity as a whole, forcing radical changes in many social, economic and hygienic behaviours (WHO 2020a , b ; Passavanti et al 2021 ; Wu 2021 ). In order to curb the spread of the COVID-19 virus, a significant amount of the global population has been requested to comply with restrictions to economic and mobility activities (De Vos 2020 ; Wilder-Smith and Freedman 2020 ; Barbieri et al 2021 ). Although essential industries have been operating continuously (Wang et al 2020a b ), the massive decline in the global pattern of energy demand (i.e.…”