Impact of Different Transportation Modes on the Transmission of COVID-19: Correlation and Strategies from a Case Study in Wuhan, China

Abstract

Transportation is the main carrier of population movement, so it is significant to clarify how different transportation modes influence epidemic transmission. This paper verified the relationship between different levels of facilities and epidemic transmission by use of the K-means clustering method and the Mann–Whitney U test. Next, quantile regression and negative binomial regression were adopted to evaluate the relationship between transportation modes and transmission patterns. Finally, this paper proposed a control efficiency indicator to assess the differentiated strategies. The results indicated that the epidemic appeared 2–3 days earlier in cities with strong hubs, and the diagnoses were nearly fourfold than in other cities. In addition, air and road transportation were strongly associated with transmission speed, while railway and road transportation were more correlated with severity. A prevention strategy that considered transportation facility levels resulted in a reduction of the diagnoses of about 6%, for the same cost. The results of different strategies may provide valuable insights for cities to develop more efficient control measures and an orderly restoration of public transportation during the steady phase of the epidemic.

Analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei province based on Tencent's location big data

“…The northeast regions suffered the most while the western regions suffered the least. This was because the development of the Wuhan metropolitan area promoted the opening of intercity railways, which reduced the intercity commuting cost, thereby increasing the volume and frequency of population movement from cities adjoining Wuhan to Wuhan (9,69). As a center of the regional economy, Wuhan's high population density and rapid population movement resulted in the "siphon effect" that served as a catalyst for the spread of infectious diseases (70, 71), On the other hand, for the cities in the northwest, such as Shennongjia and Enshi, due to the long straightline distance and high commuting cost, the urban centrality and urban connection intensity levels were reflected in the scale of epidemic infection in the region.…”

“…. (7)(8)(9). While frequent population movement facilitates the longdistance and large-scale transmission of the virus (10,11), the movement of people between different regions plays a significant role in promoting full contact and transmission between potentially infected people and susceptible communities (12)(13)(14).…”

“…The large-scale movement of people is an important reason for the rapid spread of the epidemic, and the dense population movement between cities plays an important part in promoting the spread of the epidemic in the affected areas (41-43). Due to the changes in interactive factors such as environment, transportation mode, transmission distance, and the scale of population flow, the relationship among cities in the region is very high, which promotes the population flow to a certain extent (9,44). Similarly, when it comes to infectious diseases, the moving population is a potential carrier of the virus, greatly increasing the possibility of the spread of the virus (45,46).…”