Impact of domestic travel restrictions on transmission of COVID-19 infection using public transportation network approach

Abstract

The international spread of COVID-19 infection has attracted global attention, but the impact of local or domestic travel restriction on public transportation network remains unclear. Passenger volume data for the domestic public transportation network in Japan and the time at which the first confirmed COVID-19 case was observed in each prefecture were extracted from public data sources. A survival approach in which a hazard was modeled as a function of the closeness centrality on the network was utilized to estimate the risk of importation of COVID-19 in each prefecture. A total of 46 prefectures with imported cases were identified. Hypothetical scenario analyses indicated that both strategies of locking down the metropolitan areas and restricting domestic airline travel would be equally effective in reducing the risk of importation of COVID-19. While caution is necessary that the data were limited to June 2020 when the pandemic was in its initial stage and that no other virus spreading routes have been considered, domestic travel restrictions were effective to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on public transportation network in Japan. Instead of lockdown that might seriously damage the economy, milder travel restrictions could have the similar impact on controlling the domestic transmission of COVID-19.

Decreased human respiratory syncytial virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: an ecological time-series analysis

“…However, there are a limited number of studies reporting the effects of domestic travel restrictions on the virus spread. A recently published report by Murano et al, quantifying the effect of domestic travel restrictions and COVID-19 spread in Japan, provides interesting insights into the transmission dynamics of other respiratory infections, including HRSV [ 65 ]. Specifically, transmission dynamics varied in the degree of reduction in the number of passengers and the centrality of each prefecture in the public transport network (e.g., car, train, ship, airline network), assuming that traffic restrictions were in place.…”

Managing borders during public health emergencies of international concern: a proposed typology of cross-border health measures

“…During COVID-19, domestic travel restrictions are increasingly recognized as an important means of controlling spread of the coronavirus [ 75 ]. Cross-border health measures have been extensively used to control movements across internal or domestic (subnational jurisdictions) borders.…”

How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility: An Exploratory Analysis

“…Exposing to a higher concentration of NO 2 also lead to respiratory functionality damage, including decreased levels in lung volume and expiratory flow (14). Given that the impact of transportation restriction on ambient NO 2 and COVID-19 transmissibility have been well understood (15,16), we speculate that the statistical association between ambient NO 2 and COVID-19 transmissibility obtained from previous evidences may be undermined without considering the effect of transportation restriction.…”

“…In the hypothesized mediation framework, we considered transportation restriction, ambient NO 2 , and COVID-19 transmissibility as the independent variable, mediator, and the dependent variable, respectively. The assumption is based on the well-studied evidence that (i) transportation restriction causes a reduction in ambient NO 2 ( 3 ) and (ii) transportation restriction may also reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19 ( 15 , 16 ). According to the mediation framework by the classic requirements of Baron and Kennys ( 27 ), NO 2 would be a mediator to explain the relationship between transportation restriction and COVID-19 transmissibility if the hypothesis yielded in Scenario 1 was true.…”