Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Thailand Macroeconomic Variables

Ponlaem, Kanwara; Kaewsompong, Nachatchapong; Maneejuk, Paravee; Sirisrisakulchai, Jirakom

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-49728-6_29

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This result supports hypothesis 1 that firms will reduce investment as global economic policy uncertainty increases, and vice versa. Also, the outcome of the first hypothesis fully supports prior studies and conclusion of Wang and Huang (2014), Gulen and Ion (2016), Bhagat et al (2021), andPonlaem (2021). However, the reliability of this result is still not high and further research is needed.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

“…In India, economic policy uncertainty has a negative correlation with GDP as well as fixed investment with the figures of 0.56% and 1.36%, respectively (Bhagat et al, 2013). Since Thailand has yet to develop the EPU index, Thai researchers Ponlaem et al (2021) used EPU index from the U.S., Japan, and China to show that the increase of International EPU index has an impact on and slow down Thailand's economic activities.…”

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesis Development Economic Policy...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

CAO

2024

Intl. J. Rel.

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The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is an important indicator that influences the corporate financial and investment behavior of companies. In this study, the corporate investment behavior from 2018 to 2020 of 354 non-financial firms listed in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange is analyzed to determine how businesses respond to changes in the Global EPU index and to determine how Leverage, Cash flow, Tobin’s Q, Size, and Sales Growth affect business investment. In addition, the research also examined how corporate investment differs between state-owned companies and non-state-owned companies. The data was hand collected and analyzed by Pooled OLS Regression and Fixed-Effect Model through STATA software to determine the relationship between corporate investment and explanatory variables. The results of the study indicate that the correlation between corporate investment and the global EPU index is inversely proportional. This study also proves that the increase of leverage ratio is a factor that helps business investment growth.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesis Development Economic Policy...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

CAO

2024

Intl. J. Rel.

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“…When the uncertainty index is lower, the government's policy will be looser, and the higher the uncertainty index, the government's policy will be greater to promote economic development. [9] Then, through the curve fitting equation of housing prices and the index, the changes of the CSI 300 index from 2023 to 2027 under the macroeconomic control of the Chinese government are calculated. When the government factor is added, the image of the forecast is: From the analysis of the above methods, under the government's macroeconomic control, from 2023 to 2027, the CSI 300 index will decline slightly less and will not form a violent shock.…”

Section: Further Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the Real Estate Recession on China's Stock Market

Liu

2024

AEMPS

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This paper makes a predictive analysis of the correlation between housing prices and CSI 300 index. The article selects the national average annual housing prices from 2006 to 2022 and the annual average index of China's CSI 300 Index from 2006 to 2022. The time series model was used to predict the future housing price trend and the impact of government policy is considered as well. Government factors are measured by the China Economic Uncertainty Index (CEPUI). In the absence of the government's regulation, China's housing prices in the next few years, will have a sharp decline. At the same time, the CSI 300 index will fall to the level of about 3000. When the government factor is added to the model, housing prices will only fall slightly, and the CSI 300 will remain basically unchanged. With the help of the government, Chinese house prices will fall slightly and the CSI 300 index will be basically unchanged. This paper provides empirical analysis for the study of the Chinese stock market.

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“…Igualmente, la EPU incrementa el riesgo en los mercados financieros, particularmente en lo relacionado con la menor protección del gobierno a estos mercados (Cai, et al, 2020;Huang et al, 2018). De la misma manera, la EPU impacta otras variables macrofinancieras fundamentales, como el tipo de cambio, la inflación, la tasa de interés y las primas de riesgo (Ponlaem et al, 2020;Shaikh, 2020;Li y Zhong, 2020). Finalmente, la EPU tiene impacto en el precio de algunos commodities, de los cuales se ha comprobado tienen incidencia en los índices bursátiles (Shahzad et al, 2017;Bakas y Triantafyllou, 2018;Zhu et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Impacto de la Incertidumbre de la Política Económica y del tipo de cambio en el mercado accionario a nivel internacional (2001-2020): un análisis de causalidad y cointegración de panel

Castro

Rodríguez²,

Olivares³

2021

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Este artículo analiza el impacto que la incertidumbre de la política económica local (EPU) y el tipo de cambio tienen sobre el mercado accionario de 14 países durante el periodo (2001-2020). Se busca analizar si existe un efecto diferenciado de la EPU y del tipo de cambio entre los mercados de países no desarrollados y desarrollados. Para ello se estiman tres modelos de panel cointegrado: uno general, uno para países no desarrollados y otro para desarrollados, y se realizan las pruebas de causalidad de Granger para los tres paneles. Los resultados sugieren que existen relaciones significativas y negativas de la EPU, y en el tipo de cambio hacia la bolsa de valores; los índices bursátiles de países desarrollados son más sensibles a la EPU y tipo de cambio. Se comprueba que existe causalidad unidireccional de la EPU hacia el índice bursátil.

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Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Thailand Macroeconomic Variables

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

The Impact of the Real Estate Recession on China's Stock Market

Impacto de la Incertidumbre de la Política Económica y del tipo de cambio en el mercado accionario a nivel internacional (2001-2020): un análisis de causalidad y cointegración de panel

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