Impact of electric and clean-fuel vehicles on future PM_2.5 and ozone pollution over Delhi

Abstract

We investigate the impact of adoption of electric vehicles and cleaner fuels on future surface levels of PM2.5 and ozone over Delhi for two contrasting seasons, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. We run the WRF-Chem atmospheric transport model at high resolution (4 km) with two transport emission scenarios for year 2030: 1) a scenario with electrification of two- and three-wheelers and light commercial vehicles, and 2) a scenario which also includes conversion of diesel vehicles to compressed natural gas (CNG). 
Compared to the baseline values in 2019, the scenario with both electrification and conversion of diesel vehicles to CNG has a greater reduction in PM2.5 concentrations (up to 5%) than the electrification of two- and three-wheelers and light commercial vehicles alone (within 1%), mainly due to the the greater reduction in primary emissions of PM2.5 and black carbon from diesel conversion to CNG. Vehicles electrification could result in an increase in the daily maximum 8-hours ozone concentrations, which are partially offset by additionally converting to CNG - by -1.9% and +2.4% during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This reflects higher NOx emissions from the CNG vehicle scenario compared to electrification-alone scenario, which limits the increase of surface ozone in the VOC-limited chemical environment over Delhi.
Our findings highlight the importance of a coordinated strategy for PM2.5 and ozone when considering traffic emission controls, and highlight that the transition to electric vehicles should be accompanied by the conversion of diesel vehicles to CNG to limit surface ozone increase and achieve greater reduction in PM2.5 concentrations over Delhi. However, the small changes in PM2.5 and in ozone compared to the baseline scenario highlight the importance of joint emissions reduction from other sectors to achieve substantial progress in PM2.5 and ozone air quality in Delhi.