Impact of environmental factors on the coevolution of information–emotions–epidemic dynamics in activity-driven multiplex networks

Abstract

During public health emergencies, the diffusion of negative information can exacerbate the transmission of adverse emotions, such as fear and anxiety. These emotions can adversely affect immune function and consequently influence epidemic spreading. In this paper, we establish a coupled model incorporating environmental factors to explore the co-evolution dynamic process of information-emotions-epidemic dynamics in activity-driven multiplex networks. In this model, environmental factors refer to external conditions or pressures that affect the spread of information, emotions, and epidemics. These factors include media coverage, public opinion, and the prevalence of disease in the neighborhood. These layers are dynamically cross-coupled, where the environmental factors in the information layer are influenced by the emotional layer, and the higher levels of anxious states among neighboring individuals, the greater the likelihood of information diffusion. While environmental factors in the emotional layer are influenced by both the information layer and the epidemic layer, it comes from the factors of global information and the proportion of local infections among surrounding neighbors. Subsequently, we utilize the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA) to describe the dynamical processes, thereby obtaining the epidemic threshold. Finally, we draw conclusions through numerical modeling and analysis. The conclusions suggest that when negative information heightens the probability of anxious states transmission across the population. The transmission of anxious states increases the final size of the disease and decreases the outbreak threshold. Reducing the impact of environmental factors at both the informational and emotional levels is beneficial in controlling the scale of the spread of the epidemic. Our findings can provide a reference for improving the public’s health awareness and behavioral decision-making, mitigating the adverse impacts of anxious states, and ultimately controlling the spreading of epidemics.