Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

Zuccaro, Giulio; Cacace, F.; Spence, Robin; Baxter, Peter

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.005

Cited by 139 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…3.1.3 for a variable l). Equation 3 is well suited to describe the typical S-shaped vulnerability curve used in damage assessment for earthquakes (Fabbrocino et al 2005), volcanic eruptions (Spence et al 2005;Zuccaro et al 2008), winds (Wehner et al 2010), fluvial floods (Reese and Ramsay 2010), tsunamis (Srivihok et al 2012) or asteroid impacts (Mignan et al 2011). In the present case, we consider a single-damage state, which is an oversimplification compared to standard risk assessment.…”

Section: Building a Stochastic Event Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One example, which has recently been considered, is the increase in vulnerability to ground shaking due to increased structural load following an ash fall (Zuccaro et al 2008;Selva 2013). Another well-known case is the increased vulnerability of structures to successive shakings during an earthquake cluster (Jalayer et al 2010).…”

Section: Considering Time-variant Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

2014

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Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability-high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.

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Section: Building a Stochastic Event Setmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Considering Time-variant Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

2014

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“…En el TAP de 2012, para la zona de influencia del volcán Galeras, en principio se tomaron las cargas de colapso establecidas por INGEOMINAS (1998;Torres, 2001), en atención a las cargas límite de fallamiento conforme al tipo y estado de la cubierta y la distancia entre apoyos, y después de una revaluación, se modificaron algunos valores para las clases de cubiertas Liviana-Moderada (LM) teniendo en cuenta experiencias de otros estudios relacionados con cargas de colapso en cubiertas (Spence et al, 2005;Zuccaro et al, 2008).…”

Section: Mecanismos De Falla Por Caídas De Ceniza En Cubiertas De Ediunclassified

Vulnerabilidad Física De Cubiertas De Edificaciones De Uso De Ocupación Normal Ante Caídas De Ceniza en La Zona De Influencia Del Volcán Galeras

2017

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Forma de citar:Torres-Corredor, R.A., Ponce-Villarreal, P., y Gómez-Martínez, D.M. 2017. Vulnerabilidad física de cubiertas de edificaciones de uso de ocupación normal ante caídas de ceniza en la zona de influencia del volcán Galeras. Boletín de Geología, 39(2): 67-82. RESUMENEl enfoque principal de esta investigación es un método para evaluación de la vulnerabilidad física de cubiertas de edificaciones por sobrecarga ante caída de ceniza, por erupciones del volcán Galeras. Para conocer la posible afectación de cubiertas y edificaciones, se establecen relaciones de daño para tipos de cubiertas con base en su tipología, distancias entre apoyos y estado. La evaluación de vulnerabilidad permite estimar el grado de daño probable de la cubierta y edificación. La metodología parte de caracterizar la amenaza para establecer el patrón de intensidad para analizar la resistencia del elemento expuesto, que para ceniza, es la carga transferida por un espesor acumulado sobre la cubierta. Adicionalmente, se realizó un inventario de elementos expuestos, definiendo tipo de cubierta, materiales, configuración geométrica y estado, así como el de la edificación, para luego categorizar en cubiertas tipo, a las cuales se les analiza la resistencia para determinar la máxima solicitación que conduce al fallamiento, evaluando también el impacto sobre toda la edificación. Se estima la probabilidad de daño mediante una función de distribución acumulativa, teniendo en cuenta la varianza de la solicitación límite debido a factores como heterogeneidades de los materiales, dimensiones de elementos, efectos constructivos o distribución de la carga de ceniza de acuerdo a la trayectoria del viento, al estilo de cubierta, así como la humedad presente en la ceniza. La evaluación de vulnerabilidad en la zona de Galeras muestra que aunque las cubiertas livianas y moderadas son más vulnerables a cargas de cenizas, el efecto de afectación global en la edificación es menor, contrario a cubiertas pesadas y losas. Este estudio formula consideraciones en diseño de cubiertas de edificaciones ubicadas en zonas aledañas a volcanes activos, que podrían ser base para la creación de una norma de diseño y construcción para cubiertas resistentes ante sobrecargas de ceniza.Palabras clave: Vulnerabilidad, cubiertas de edificaciones, caída de ceniza, volcán Galeras. PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY OF BUILDING ROOFS OF NORMAL OCCUPANCY USE FACING ASHFALL IN THE GALERAS VOLCANO INFLUENCE ZONE ABSTRACTThe main focus of this research is a method for assessing the physical vulnerability of building roofs due to overloading of ashfall by eruptions of Galeras volcano. In order to know the possible affectation of roofs and buildings, damage relationships are established for types of roofs based on their typology, distances between supports and state. The vulnerability assessment allows estimating the likely degree of damage of the roof and building. The methodology starts from characterizing the hazard to establish the intensity pattern to analyze the resistance of the exposed elem...

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“…Their results highlighted the relevance of considering large-scale evacuation of population (more than 100 000 persons) in volcanic crisis preparedness plans. Finally, Zuccaro et al (2008) focused on explosive scenarios for Vesuvius, by considering multiple volcanic phenomena and by tackling the issue of cumulative damage due to joint adverse events (e.g. earthquake sequences or the combined effects of ash fall and seismic aggression).…”

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Significant effort has been recently carried out in this field. This has resulted for example in the development of volcanic risk assessment tools such as EXPLORIS (EXPLORIS Consortium, 2005;Spence et al, 2008;Zuccaro et al, 2008) or RiskScape Volcano (Kaye, 2007). The former is focused on the effects of explosive eruptions (i.e.…”

Section: A Brief Review Of Existing Volcanic Risk Scenario Toolsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon

Gehl

Quinet

Cozannet

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents an integrated approach to conduct a scenario-based volcanic risk assessment on a variety of exposed assets, such as residential buildings, cultivated areas, network infrastructures or individual strategic buildings. The focus is put on the simulation of scenarios, based on deterministic adverse event input, which are applied to the case study of an effusive eruption on the Mount Cameroon volcano, resulting in the damage estimation of the assets located in the area. The work is based on the recent advances in the field of seismic risk. A software for systemic risk scenario analysis developed within the FP7 project SYNER-G has been adapted to address the issue of volcanic risk. Most significant improvements include the addition of vulnerability models adapted to each kind of exposed element and the possibility to quantify the successive potential damages inflicted by a sequence of adverse events (e.g. lava flows, tephra fall, etc.). The use of an object-oriented architecture gives the opportunity to model and compute the physical damage of very disparate types of infrastructures under the same framework. Finally, while the risk scenario approach is limited to the assessment of the physical impact of adverse events, a specific focus on strategic infrastructures and a dialogue with stakeholders helps in evaluating the potential wider indirect consequences of an eruption.

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Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

Cited by 139 publications

References 18 publications

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Vulnerabilidad Física De Cubiertas De Edificaciones De Uso De Ocupación Normal Ante Caídas De Ceniza en La Zona De Influencia Del Volcán Galeras

Potential and limitations of risk scenario tools in volcanic areas through an example at Mount Cameroon

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