Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Abstract

Background Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. Objective The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place. Methods We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. Results The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

Comparison of Risk Factors and Preventable Causes of Unnatural Deaths from 1990 to 2017

“…The FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade it was in effect. Linear regression analysis of the data showed that continued implementation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public shootings and saved the lives of 339 people and 1139 injured people [38].…”

Forensic and Legal Medicine

“…The evolutionary factor makes the phenotype/genotype linkage research difficult; besides, this phenomenon also creates difficulties in the correlation studies that are only applicable to a single specific population. However, the linkage found in admixed populations did not have the same bias as in more homogeneous populations, such as Europeans [38]. Beside these research studies, other studies were performed on same populations, which were not able to distinguish skin color among different groups of African, Native Americans, and Asian [39].…”

“…Lastly, a simple linear regression analysis was employed, wherein the variables mean (M) (mean of variables complete pulp length/root length [from ECJ to root apex] [p], complete pulp length/complete tooth length [r], complete pulp length/ root width at ECJ level [a], pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level [b], and pulp/root width at mid-root level [c]) and the difference between width and length (W À L) were found to contribute significantly to the chronological age estimation and were utilized in the regression equation for Kvaal's method as per the given formula: Age = 129.8 À (316.4 Â M) (6.8 Â [W À L]). Other Authors like Bosmans et al [36], Landa et al [37], and Li et al [38] used measurements made on a panoramic radiograph instead of periapical radiographs used in the original formula of Kvaal's technique, thus avoiding the cumbersome full mouth radiographs.…”

A Scoping Study of Evaluation Practices for Responsible AI Tools: Steps Towards Effectiveness Evaluations

“…In many fields, experimental studies are held up as the "gold standard" for evaluation quality (although not without critiques [e.g., 43,142,190]), as they allow researchers to compare the outcomes (e.g., test scores) of a group who received an intervention with a similar control group that did not [5,80]. When randomized assignment of participants to a treatment or control group makes experimental studies impossible or infeasible, as in state-level health policy research [e.g., 9]), researchers may use quasi-experimental methods (e.g., regression discontinuity analysis [160], difference-in-difference [9], propensity score matching, and instrumental variables [93,96]) to approximate the controls used in an experimental study.…”