Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Macroeconomic Aggregates in Turkey: Evidence from BVAR Model

Karagöz, Kadir; Keskin, Rıdvan

doi:10.1016/s2212-5671(16)30212-x

Cited by 17 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In this case, we consider a multivariate normal prior for B and independent inverse Wishart prior for . Under this type of prior distribution, the posterior distribution is Normal-Wishart (Karagöz & Keskin, 2016 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

Simionescu

Cifuentes‐Faura

2022

Soc Indic Res

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In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices in Spain for the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the second quarter of 2021, being the first work to carry out this study for Spain and the first to use the regional approach for the country. Vector autoregressive Bayesian models and vector error correction models have been used for national data, and Bayesian panel data models and fixed effects model for regional data. The results confirm that forecasts based on Google Trends data are more accurate in predicting the youth unemployment rate.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

Simionescu

Cifuentes‐Faura

2022

Soc Indic Res

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“…The proportion of the urban residential population within the total population (urban) was used as an urbanization index to measure the effects of structural factors on the economy in different regions. With reference to the studies conducted by Salinas and Aksoy (2006), Asimakopoulos and Karavias (2016), and Karagöz and Keskin (2016), the logarithm of actual fiscal expenditure (lnfiscal) was used as a policy control variable.…”

Section: Specification Of Relevant Control Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Promotes Post-Earthquake Economic Recovery: The Role of Counterpart Assistance Policy After the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake, China

Deng

et al. 2021

Sage Open

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Despite the economic statistics from recent years indicating outstanding economic recovery in disaster-affected areas after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, the causes of these macro-economic changes remain ambiguous. The Chinese Government set up the counterpart assistance policy to aid post-disaster reconstruction after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in 2008; however, whether the changes seen in the economic statistics can be attributed to this policy remains unclear. This article uses the difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effects of counterpart assistance on economic development in disaster areas. Thirty-nine severely affected counties were chosen as research objects and divided into a treatment group (18 recipient counties) and a control group (non-recipient counties). Empirical results indicate the counterpart assistance policy helped to significantly improve the real GDP and GDP growth rate per capita in the treatment group. Counterpart assistance influenced the real GDP principally by increasing investment in fixed assets, employment, urbanization level, and fiscal expenditure. The findings of this study deepen our understanding of counterpart assistance within the Chinese context.

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“…The findings show a substantial positive association between fiscal policy adjustment and inflation variability. Karagöz and Keskin (2016) using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive method, explore the impact of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Turkey. The study finds that components of fiscal policy have no substantial effect on variables such as GDP, interest rates, external debts, inflation and stock market index.…”

Section: Empirical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fiscal Policy and Growth of Real Economic Activities in Nigeria (1980-2016)

Salako¹,

Oyeleke²

2019

Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research

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Several empirical studies have investigated the effect of fiscal policy on various macroeconomic variables such as inflation, debts, interest rates, unemployment and growth (GDP) for diverse economies, using variant methods. This paper examined the influence of fiscal policy on growth of real economic activities in Nigeria from 1980-2016, using 2010 as base year to adjust for price level. Secondary data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2016) were analysed. After verifying the stationarity property of the variables, Johansen cointegration test result revealed evidence of long run relationship among public revenues, expenditure, real GDP and inflation. The results from Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) showed that government expenditure positively and significantly impacted real economic activities' growth, but converse was the effect of public revenues on RGDP. The results, therefore, imply that government should cut tax to increase disposable income which has aptitude to enhance real aggregate production in Nigeria. Contribution of this paper to the literature:This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the effect of fiscal policy on growth of real economic activities in Nigeria with particular interest in period after 2008-2009 global financial crisis, using 2010 rebased real GDP.

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Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Macroeconomic Aggregates in Turkey: Evidence from BVAR Model

Cited by 17 publications

References 10 publications

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

What Promotes Post-Earthquake Economic Recovery: The Role of Counterpart Assistance Policy After the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake, China

Fiscal Policy and Growth of Real Economic Activities in Nigeria (1980-2016)

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Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Macroeconomic Aggregates in Turkey: Evidence from BVAR Model

Cited by 17 publications

References 10 publications

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends

What Promotes Post-Earthquake Economic Recovery: The Role of Counterpart Assistance Policy After the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake, China

Fiscal Policy and Growth of Real Economic Activities in Nigeria (1980-2016)

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What Promotes Post-Earthquake Economic Recovery: The Role of Counterpart Assistance Policy After the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake, China