Impact of geo-political risk on stocks, oil, and gold returns during GFC, COVID-19, and Russian – Ukraine War

Shaik, Muneer; Jamil, Syed Ahsan; Hawaldar, Iqbal Thonse; Sahabuddin, Mohammad; Rabbani, Mustafa Raza; Atif, Mohd

doi:10.1080/23322039.2023.2190213

Cited by 29 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Several studies have examined the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian invasion on energy sector companies and how they have responded in the market. Shaik et al (2023) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the influence of geopolitical risk on crude oil, gold, and stock returns, comparing the effects during major disruptive events such as the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Their research utilized the Geopolitical Risk index, a precise measure that tracks the escalation of geopolitical tensions over time.…”

Section: European Journal Of Management and Business Economicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our paper's main contribution is to provide empirical evidence of the market reaction of sector energy companies to the Russian-Ukrainian invasion. First, we complement the discussion on the impact of war on financial markets (Antonakakis et al, 2017;Gupta et al, 2001;Kollias et al, 2013;Leigh et al, 2013;Christofis et al, 2013;Hassouneh et al, 2018;Hoque and Zaidi, 2020;Boubaker et al, 2022;Boungou and Yatie, 2022;Basnet et al, 2022;Tosun and Eshraghi, 2022;Yousaf et al, 2022;Nerlinger and Utz, 2022;Shaik et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, we build upon the existing literature, including studies such as Shaik et al (2023) and Nerlinger and Utz (2022), to enhance our understanding of the impact of war on the market reaction of sector energy companies. Moreover, we go beyond previous research by examining the specific effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the energy sector, categorizing markets as developed, emerging, and frontier.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The market reaction of energy companies to the announcement of the Russian–Ukrainian invasion

Yudaruddin,

Lesmana

2024

EJMBE

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PurposeThis study aims to empirically analyze the market response of energy companies to the Russian-Ukrainian invasion. Additionally, it examines the comparison of market reactions between companies in NATO member countries and non-member countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilizes a sample of 1,511 energy sector companies. To achieve the research objectives, two methods are employed. First, an event study is used to analyze the market reaction using Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) to the announcement of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 (event day) within an event window of (−30, +30). Second, a cross-sectional analysis is conducted to compare the responses of companies in NATO member countries with those in non-member countries.FindingsThe findings of this study reveal that energy companies worldwide reacted positively both before and after the announcement of the invasion, with significant reactions observed in companies from the Americas, Europe, and Asia & Pacific regions. However, the Middle East and Africa markets did not show significant reactions. Furthermore, the study indicates that most developed and emerging markets responded positively, likely due to the increase in energy commodity prices during the war. Moreover, the market reaction of companies in NATO member countries was stronger compared to other markets.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by being the first to examine the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the energy sector, while categorizing markets as developed, emerging, and frontier. It also specifically explores the market reaction of energy companies in NATO member countries, providing unique insights into the differential responses within the energy sector.

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Section: European Journal Of Management and Business Economicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The market reaction of energy companies to the announcement of the Russian–Ukrainian invasion

Yudaruddin,

Lesmana

2024

EJMBE

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“…Abbassi et al (2022) concluded that stock prices depend considerably on trade and are fragile to GPR [36]. Shaik et al (2023) showed that GPR affected stock, gold, and oil returns during the disruptive events of the worldwide economic downturn, COVID-19, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war [37]. Salisu et al (2023) emphasized the predictive value of GPR in the global financial cycle (GFCy) [38].…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022

Panazan,

Gheorghe

2024

Mathematics

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This study investigates co-movements between the GPR generated by the Crimean Peninsula’s annexation in 2014, the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022, and the volatility of stock markets in the G7 states. Using wavelet analysis, concentrated co-movement was found for all indices in both periods. Contrary to the general perception, we find that the G7 financial market response in 2014 was robust. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) test, we found a larger reaction in the amplitude of the G7 financial markets in 2022 than in 2014. The financial markets in France, Germany, and the UK showed a similar reaction in 2022. We have identified some common aspects, even if the political and military contexts of the two studied events were completely different. Our findings offer new and interesting implications for understanding how geopolitical risk affects financial assets for market participants with multiple investment horizons and strategies.

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“…While the world is still struggling with covid-19, a new crisis has emerged in the form of Russia-Ukraine war [ 40 ]. The geopolitical risk faced by the international markets in general and regional markets in particular increased sharply after Russian invasion of Ukraine [ 31 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamic volatility nexus of geo-political risks, stocks, bond, bitcoin, gold and oil during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war

Shaik,

Rabbani,

Atif

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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We investigate the dynamic volatility connectedness of geopolitical risk, stocks, bonds, bitcoin, gold, and oil from January 2018 to April 2022 in this study. We look at connectivity during the Pre-COVID, COVID, and Russian-Ukraine war subsamples. During the COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war periods, we find that conventional, Islamic, and sustainable stock indices are net volatility transmitters, whereas gold, US bonds, GPR, oil, and bitcoin are net volatility receivers. During the Russian-Ukraine war, the commodity index (DJCI) shifted from being a net recipient of volatility to a net transmitter of volatility. Furthermore, we discover that bilateral intercorrelations are strong within stock indices (DJWI, DJIM, and DJSI) but weak across all other financial assets. Our study has important implications for policymakers, regulators, investors, and financial market participants who want to improve their existing strategies for avoiding financial losses.

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Impact of geo-political risk on stocks, oil, and gold returns during GFC, COVID-19, and Russian – Ukraine War

Cited by 29 publications

References 66 publications

The market reaction of energy companies to the announcement of the Russian–Ukrainian invasion

The market reaction of energy companies to the announcement of the Russian–Ukrainian invasion

Impact of Geopolitical Risk on G7 Financial Markets: A Comparative Wavelet Analysis between 2014 and 2022

The dynamic volatility nexus of geo-political risks, stocks, bond, bitcoin, gold and oil during COVID-19 and Russian-Ukraine war

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