Impact of global climate change on stream low flows: A case study of the great Miami river watershed, Ohio, USA

Abstract

Climate change will profoundly affect hydrological processes at various temporal and spatial scales. This study is focused on assessing the alteration of water resources availability and low flows frequencies driven by changing climates in different time periods of the 21 st century. This study evaluates the adaptability of prevailing Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on a particular watershed through streamflow regimes. This analysis was conducted in the Great Miami River Watershed, Ohio by analyzing historical and future simulated streamflow using 10 climate model outputs and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The climate change scenarios, consisting of ten downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparision Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were selected based on the correlation between observed records and model outputs. Streamflow for three future periods, 2016-2043, 2044-2071 and 2072-2099, were independently analyzed and compared with the baseline period . Results from the average of ten models projected that 7-day low flows in the watershed would increase by 19% in the 21 st century under both RCPs. This trend was also consistent for both hydrological (7Q10, 1Q10) and biological low flow statistics (4B3, 1B3). Similarly, average annual flow and monthly flows would also increase in future periods, especially in the summer. The flows simulated by SWAT in response to the majority of climate model projections showed a consistent increase in low flow patterns. However, the flow estimates using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) climate output resulted in the biological based low flows (4B3, 1B3) decreasing by 22.5% and 33.4% under RCP 4.5 and 56.9% and 63.7% under RCP 8.5, respectively, in the future when compared to the baseline period. Regardless, the low flow ensemble from the 10 climate models for the 21 st century seemed to be slightly higher than that of historical low flows.

Development of Climate Data Bias Corrector (CDBC) Tool and Its Application over the Agro-Ecological Zones of India

“…The tool has been verified in this study on AEZs of India as well as in a study on climate change impact on the hydrology of the Great Miami River watershed in Ohio, USA by Shrestha et al [17]. After testing it on different AEZs of India which are varied in terms of climate and other crop-related parameters as well as in one of the watersheds of USA which is again possess a completely different climatic condition than India, it can be claimed that the tool is not region specific and can be used anywhere around the world.…”

“…Similarly, solar radiation was also analyzed on a seasonal basis. Most of the AEZs of different major climatic regions are expected to experience an increase in winter solar radiation as compared to summer except AEZ 3,8,17,19,and 20, where there is a significant probability of a slight decrease in winter solar radiation, ranging up to 0.6 MJ/m 2 (Figures 7b and 8b) by 2080s. By analyzing the temperature on a seasonal basis, a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperature was observed in most of AEZs, up to 1.4 • C. Similarly, few AEZs ( AEZ 3,7,8,14,19,and 20) are projected to have an increase up to 0.8 • C in the maximum temperature during the winter than in the summer by the end of this century.…”

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Extreme High and Low Flows: An Improved Bottom-Up Approach

“…Higher values of future low flows compared to the baseline period due to increased rainfall intensity in North America were reported by Shrestha et al [71] based on SWAT simulations forced by data from ten GCMs from CMIP5 archives in response to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in a river located in southwest Ohio, USA. Similar conclusions of extremely low flow conditions to occur less frequently in the future were reported by modeling studies applied to different watersheds across Europe [72,73] and Asia [74,75].…”

Species Distribution Models for a Native Imperiled Minnow and a Nonnative Sport Fish in a Western Ohio River

“…Increasing the number of large native trees throughout Mad River riparian zones may mitigate rising water temperatures through provision of increased shade on the fluvial surface (Johnson and Wilby 2015). Much of the Great Miami River, including the Mad River, traverses privately owned land, a large proportion of which is agricultural (Shrestha et al 2019). Efficacy of this measure necessitates cooperation from growers who place high value on maximizing crop yields through maximal land use.…”