This paper investigates volatility modeling in light of the 2008 global financial crisis. The study was motivated by the measures and regulations introduced by most of the countries following the shock to stabilize their financial markets. The theoretical proposition is that these measures should succeed in reducing volatility which would be modeled differently following the crisis. The adopted ARMA-GARCH process included positive and negative trading volume change to capture the asymmetric effect of trading volume on market volatility for seven international markets. The results indicate that the majority of these markets were not so successful in reducing volatility following the crisis. There is evidence of volatility persistence which dissipates very quickly. Although volatility is modeled differently before and after the crisis, each market is modeled uniquely. The effect of trading volume was found to be asymmetric. Only positive change was a valid predictor. Detailed discussions of the results, implications, and recommendations are provided.
JEL Classification: G01, G21, G32In this paper, we aim to explore this conceptual proposition in the context of the 2008 great recession. We seek answers to particular questions relevant to this proposition. Assuming that the stock markets are being better-controlled and regulated following the crisis, the important question is, have these markets become less volatile? Whether the proposition is confirmed or not, how can volatility be modeled? Is it going to be different? In other words, are the determinants of volatility still the same after the crisis?Answers to these questions should contribute more to our understanding of the effect of major financial crises on stock markets volatility and for how long it persists. The results of this study should tell us if the evidence can be generalized for all stock markets.In the next section, the relevant literature will be discussed with the objective to derive the research conceptual framework and hypotheses. An overview of regulatory measures and reforms, following the 2008 crisis in the selected sample stock markets, will be presented. This is followed by a section on the data and methodology where we discuss the scope of our sample stock markets and the method of estimation. The results of the research and discussion will then be presented. The paper ends with a section on the concluding remarks where we highlight the main contribution of the paper, along with the limitations, implications, and recommendations.
Literature ReviewIn statistics, volatility in financial data time series can be defined as the dispersion of rate of returns, typically, measured by the standard deviation or variance. The higher the value of the measure the more volatile (risky) the asset. When dealing with causality, researchers, typically apply regression methods. These methods assume that data should be normally distributed. The nature of the financial data, however, is not. They also assume that the variance of the error term should be homosc...