Impact of heat and cold waves on circulatory-cause and respiratory-cause mortality in Spain: 1975–2008

Linares, Cristina; Díaz, Julio; Tobías, Aurelio; Carmona, Rocı́o; Mirón, I.J.

doi:10.1007/s00477-014-0976-2

Cited by 49 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Moreover, it is essential to extend these types of studies to the behaviour over time of cold waves, whose impact on mortality is-at the very leastsimilar to that of heat waves (Linares et al 2014b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975–2008

et al. 2014

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The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975–2008

et al. 2014

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“…In Central and Eastern Europe more than 800 deaths caused by hypothermia resulted after extremely cold conditions in the winter of 2011/2012 (Lhotka and Kyselý, ). The effect of CWs on mortality revealed an increase by 12.9% in Spain (Linares et al, ), 10% in China and Russia (Revich and Shaposhnikov, ; Ryti et al, ), and 2.1% in the United States of America (Wang et al, ). Such substantial differences in the excess mortality during HWs and CWs around the world could be explained by the climate, adaptation, and socioeconomic status of each region in which it was reported (Wang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…HWs cause more deaths all over the world than any other natural hazards (Unkaševic and Tošic, ; D'Ippoliti et al, ; Peterson et al ., ; Shaposhnikov et al, ; Liu et al, ; Nairn and Fawcett, ; Kim et al, ; Chen et al, ). Some previous studies showed an increase in the number of deaths during HWs: between 3.0 and 7.8% in the United States of America (Medina‐Ramón and Schwartz, ; Anderson and Bell, ; Peng et al, ), 21.8% in the Mediterranean areas (D'Ippoliti et al, ), 16.5% in Spain (Linares et al, ), 5% in China (Ma et al, ). At present, it is considered highly likely that anthropogenic effect on climate will double the risk of HWs of the same magnitude of that which occurred in Europe in 2003 and was characterized by a severe impact on population (Montero et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At present, it is considered highly likely that anthropogenic effect on climate will double the risk of HWs of the same magnitude of that which occurred in Europe in 2003 and was characterized by a severe impact on population (Montero et al, ). In coming years, changes in HWs are expected to have a greater impact on human mortality than CWs (Linares et al, ; Wang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania

Piticar

Croitoru

Ciupertea

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this paper, we investigated changes in heat and cold waves in Romania over the period 1961–2015 by employing a new and superior approach. It consists in using excess heat factor to identify heat waves and excess cold factor to identify cold waves. Five indices were calculated and then analysed for both heat waves and cold waves resulting in a set of ten indices. Indices for heat waves were analysed for the extended summer season (May–September), whereas those for cold waves were assessed for the extended winter (November–March). The intensity threshold was set to be equal or above the 90th percentile for heat waves, and equal or below the 10th percentile for cold waves, while the duration threshold for both heat and cold waves was of at least three consecutive days. For a better comparison with other studies conducted worldwide, and to get more information from the data sets, the percentile thresholds for heat and cold waves identification were calculated based on three reference periods: 1961–1990, 1971–2000, and 1981–2010. Trends were calculated using ordinary least square method, whereas statistical significance was assessed by the t‐test. The main results indicated that changes are more substantial in the case of indices calculated based on excess heat factor compared to those based on excess cold factor, suggesting that the warming process is more reflected in heat waves rather than in cold waves. Thus, heat waves became more frequent, longer, and more intense, while cold waves became less frequent, but more intense. When the reference period for percentile threshold calculation was changed from the earliest to the most recent ones, the frequency of increasing and significant increasing trends decreased for some of the heat wave indices, while for the cold wave indices the significant downward trends increased.

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“…While the increase in winter mortality associated with low temperatures has been studied for a number of decades (Mackenbach et al 1992;Kunst et al 1993;Alberdi et al 1998) and has more recently been associated with extremely low temperatures or cold waves Díaz et al 2005;Donaldson and Rintamäki 2001;The Eurowinter Group 1997), it is nevertheless a phenomenon that has attracted far less attention than has the analysis of heat waves, though its impact on mortality is at least comparable (Linares et al 2014a), with some studies undertaken in the UK and Australia even indicating that cold-related deaths are of an order of magnitude greater than those related to heat . This lower degree of attention may perhaps be due to the fact that its influence on mortality is less pronounced and longer term (Alberdi et al 1998) and that there are other concomitant infectious winter factors (Healy 2003), though these do not wholly account for high winter respiratorycause mortality (Ebi and Mills 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Time trend in natural-cause, circulatory-cause and respiratory-cause mortality associated with cold waves in Spain, 1975–2008

Linares

Mirón

Carmona

et al. 2015

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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In general, there are few studies that analyse the impact of low temperatures on mortality, and even fewer that extend this analysis to specific causes of mortality. This study had a twofold aim: Firstly, to analyse the trend in natural-, circulatory-and respiratory-cause mortality associated with cold waves in Castile-La Mancha (Spain) across a period of analysis of 34 years, which would confer an important degree of temporal representativeness on the results obtained; and secondly, to ascertain whether this impact had decreased over the years. Time series analysis using multivariate ARIMA models with data on daily natural-, circulatory-and respiratory-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha. The independent variables were minimum daily temperature, mean daily pressure and mean daily relative humidity. We controlled for seasonalities and trend of the series, as well as influenza epidemics, cold-wave duration and chronological number in any given year. Data were stratified in three ten-year stages, i.e. , 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. The mortality trigger temperature was set at a minimum daily temperature of -2°C, corresponding to the 4th % of the minimum temperature series for the winter months considered. The impact on daily natural-cause mortality for each degree that the minimum daily temperature was below -2°C was: 10.4 % (95 % CI 9.6-11.2) in the first decade; 11.9 % (95 % CI 11.0-12.8) in the second decade; and fell to 1.6 % (95 % CI 0.9-2.3) in the third. This same pattern was observed for circulatory-and respiratory-cause mortality, with the effect of cold being greater for respiratory causes. Socio-economic factors -both of adaptation and demographic-could account for this sharp decrease in mortality associated with low temperatures. These results question climate models which predict the effects of cold over long-term time horizons, while maintaining the risk attributable to low temperatures constant. Studies similar to ours should be undertaken in other regions to confirm whether it is solely local characteristics that explain this pattern or, on the contrary, whether the pattern is generalised.

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Impact of heat and cold waves on circulatory-cause and respiratory-cause mortality in Spain: 1975–2008

Cited by 49 publications

References 56 publications

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975–2008

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975–2008

Recent changes in heat waves and cold waves detected based on excess heat factor and excess cold factor in Romania

Time trend in natural-cause, circulatory-cause and respiratory-cause mortality associated with cold waves in Spain, 1975–2008

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