Impact of hepatitis B immunization strategies on infection rates in Italy: A deterministic computer simulation

Abstract

The impact of different immunization strategies on hepatitis B infection rates in Italy over a 20 year period is simulated by the means of a simple deterministic mathematical model. The anticipated effect of vaccination of health workers only, of newborns from HBsAg+ mothers, of all newborns, of the entire population are simulated. Immunization of newborns from HBsAg+ mothers is by far the strategy with the greater effectiveness per unit cost.

Prevention of hepatitis B in Italy: lessons from surveillance of type-specific acute viral hepatitis

“…This strategy is effective against household transmission of B hepatitis (both sexual and non sexual) in which the relative and attributable risk is the greatest. Such a strategy, however, of immunizing high risk groups is not likely to be effective in the short run to reduce hepatitis B infection due to other risk factors identified by the surveillance system [13]. It is a matter of primary importance for public health to combine the hepatitis B vaccination programme with other interventions.…”