Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

Singh, Loitongbam Bishwanjit

doi:10.1177/00157325211021503

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Yang and Martinez-Zarzoso (2014) also reported the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) has substantial and significant trade creation effects in the case of both agricultural and manufactured goods. Similar results were found by Singh (2021) using India–Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Agreement (IAFTA). A study by Tegebu and Seid (2019) analysed the effect of African RTAs on strategic agricultural products and found that the RTAs have mixed effect on trade creation and trade diversion with SADC having no net creation or diversion effect.…”

Section: Results Presentation and Analysissupporting

confidence: 86%

Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Moyo

2023

Foreign Trade Review

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The main raison d’être of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Free Trade Area (FTA) implemented in 2012 was to inter alia boost intra-regional trade and promote regional trade integration. The low levels of growth and mixed trade performance of countries, eight years after, raises questions about the success of the FTA. The success of the recently launched African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) partly hinges on the performance of the regional FTAs like the SADC FTA. This is because it is unlikely that the African Union through the AfCFTA will achieve continentally what regional economic communities failed to achieve at the regional level. We use a gravity model as well as the difference in difference estimator to evaluate, ex-post, the impact of the SADC FTA on total and sectoral intra-exports. Using data from 2001 to 2019, results show that the full implementation of the SADC FTA did not significantly affect export performance with the export difference between countries that joined the FTA and those that did not being insignificant. These results do not change even when using sectoral exports. JEL Codes: F1, F13, F14, F15

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Section: Results Presentation and Analysissupporting

confidence: 86%

Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Moyo

2023

Foreign Trade Review

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“…Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) also present an augmented version of Anderson’s (1979) gravity model which includes addition of multilateral resistance terms for the exporter and importer that proxy for the existence of undetected trade barriers. The discussion of multilateral resistance matters for heteroscedasticity considerations (Singh, 2021), a topic not addressed by many trade models, makes this model intriguing overall. Using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique with the gravity model in this study also solves the issue of zero trade flows and heteroscedasticity.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis among One Belt One Road Nations Using Structural Gravity Framework

Manzoor

Mir

2022

Foreign Trade Review

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Currently, the world is witnessing one of China’s most significant economic integration initiatives–One Belt One Road (OBOR). This article aims to evaluate the general equilibrium (GE) effects of this initiative on member nations. The structural gravity model is used in this study to perform the counterfactual analysis while analysing the conditional and general equilibrium effects of the trade policy of border removal on international trade flow among the member countries. The estimates suggest varied strade gains for the member countries in response to the trade policy changes. Most Asian countries are witnessing an increase in producers’ prices and therefore gaining more from globalisation. We also deduced that the member countries had reached half of their potential to trade gains, with most developing countries witnessing a decrease in multilateral trade resistance (MTR). The findings of this study implicate a debate for the policymakers over continuing support for further trade integration. JEL Codes: C21, F15, F17

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“…India is keen on capitalising on the significant growth potential presented by Southeast Asian nations and reducing its import reliance on other countries, especially China (Singh, 2021). Recent scholarly literature emphasises that the integration of South Asia and East Asia could yield substantial economic benefits for both regions, particularly through deeper value chain integration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing India’s Export Competitiveness in ASEAN Economies: Insights from Viner’s Trade Creation Model

Dawani,

Pareek

2024

Journal of Asian Economic Integration

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Both India and ASEAN are characterised by dynamic market economies and have implemented extensive reforms to deepen their economic integration. Despite the existing economic links between them, this article acknowledges that the trade relations are significant but fall short of their full potential. In this context, the present study utilises a modified trade creation approach to estimate India’s export potential at the sectoral level with individual ASEAN member states for the years 2010 and 2021. The analysis has identified five most significant trading partners in the region, namely, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, which together represent substantial trading opportunities in the five broad sectors such as Machinery, Chemical products, Base metals, Plastics, Minerals. Additionally, this article explores ASEAN’s GVC linkages with India vis-à-vis world at an aggregate and sectoral level over the last decade. We base our analysis on the P&C using the UN Broad Economic Category (BEC) product classification, concorded with HS trade classification. The findings reveal a marginal decline in the region’s share of GVC trade with India relative to its global GVC trade. JEL Classification: F10, F14, F15

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Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

Cited by 15 publications

References 31 publications

Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area

Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area

General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis among One Belt One Road Nations Using Structural Gravity Framework

Analysing India’s Export Competitiveness in ASEAN Economies: Insights from Viner’s Trade Creation Model

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