Predicting phytoplankton succession and variability in natural systems remains to be a grand challenge in aquatic ecosystems research. In this study, we identi ed six major plankton groups in Lake Bourget (France), based on cell size, taxonomic properties, food-web interactions and occurrence patterns: cyanobacterium Planktothrix rubescens, small and large phytoplankton, mixotrophs, herbivorous and carnivorous zooplankton. We then developed a deterministic dynamic model that describes the dynamics of these groups in terms of carbon and phosphorus uxes, as well as of particulate organic phosphorus and dissolved inorganic provide evidence for the hypothesis that the abundance of this species before the onset of strati cation is critical for its success later in the growing season, pointing thereby to a priority e ect.