Impact of intervention targeting risk factors on chronic disease burden

Wanneveich, Mathilde; Jacqmin‐Gadda, Hélène; Dartigues, Jean‐François; Joly, Pierre

doi:10.1177/0962280216631360

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We estimate the number of PD patients, the life expectancy for individuals with PD (LE 11 ), and the lifetime risk of PD (F 01 ) for all ages older than 45 years and each year of birth. The statistical method is described in detail in Wanneveich and colleagues . In this paper, we provide projections for the year t = 2030; all analyses are sex stratified.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The statistical method is described in detail in Wanneveich and colleagues. 10 In this paper, we provide projections for the year t = 2030; all analyses are sex stratified. Figure 2 shows the estimated RR of death for individuals with PD versus those without, gðaÞ.…”

Section: Step 2: Projection Of Health Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since registry data usually do not report the causes of death it is a difficult task to estimate the risk of death without cancer. This has been studied, for instance, in Wanneveich et al [ 7 ] through an illness-death model, using registry data and differential equations to model the specific causes of death. Nevertheless, it is very likely that the gain in terms of predictions would be minor as mortality from all causes is likely to be close to mortality without cancer.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ignoring the risk of death would amount to assuming that death cannot happen and would therefore lead to overestimating the cumulative incidence (the probability of having the disease before any time point). Famous examples of such situations include dementia where the patients are of a particularly advanced age and have a high risk of dying as in Jacqmin-Gadda et al [ 6 ] or Wanneveich et al [ 7 ], or studies on geriatric patients (see, e.g., [ 8 ]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Computing Individual Risks Based on Family History in Genetic Disease in the Presence of Competing Risks

Lefebvre

Bouaziz

2017

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

When considering a genetic disease with variable age at onset (e.g., familial amyloid neuropathy, cancers), computing the individual risk of the disease based on family history (FH) is of critical interest for both clinicians and patients. Such a risk is very challenging to compute because (1) the genotype X of the individual of interest is in general unknown, (2) the posterior distribution ℙ(X∣FH, T > t) changes with t (T is the age at disease onset for the targeted individual), and (3) the competing risk of death is not negligible. In this work, we present modeling of this problem using a Bayesian network mixed with (right-censored) survival outcomes where hazard rates only depend on the genotype of each individual. We explain how belief propagation can be used to obtain posterior distribution of genotypes given the FH and how to obtain a time-dependent posterior hazard rate for any individual in the pedigree. Finally, we use this posterior hazard rate to compute individual risk, with or without the competing risk of death. Our method is illustrated using the Claus-Easton model for breast cancer. The competing risk of death is derived from the national French registry.

show abstract

“…on 20-year projections for dementia prevalence 30 and various other measures of the disease burden (including life expectancies with and without the disease and lifelong probabilities of the disease) 31 . The above methods, based on analytic computations of epidemiological indicators in continuous time, assumed that the risk factor was acquired at mid-life.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of benzodiazepine consumption reduction on future burden of dementia

Jacqmin‐Gadda

Guillet

Mathieu

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Dementia is a major public health issue worldwide and chronic use of benzodiazepine, which is very frequent in northern countries, was found to be a risk factor of dementia. this work aims at evaluating the impact of a reduction in chronic use of benzodiazepine on the future burden of dementia in france. Using estimations of dementia incidence and of benzodiazepine use and nationwide projections of mortality and population sizes, a Monte carlo approach based on an illness-death model provided projections of several indicators of dementia burden. With no change in benzodiazepine consumption, the prevalence of dementia between age 65 and 99 in France in 2040 was estimated at 2.16 millions (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.93-2.38), with a life expectancy without dementia at 65 years equal to 25.0 years (24.7-25.3) for women and 23.8 years (23.5-24.2) for men. Assuming a disappearance of chronic use of benzodiazepine in 2020, the prevalence would be reduced by about 6.6% in 2040 and the life expectancy without dementia would increase by 0.99 (0.93-1.06) year among women and 0.56 (0.50-0.62) among men. To conclude, a modest but significant reduction in future dementia burden could be obtained by applying current recommendation for duration of benzodiazepine use. Dementia, whose Alzheimer's disease is the main cause, is a very frequent disease in older adults throughout the world. Age being the main known risk factor of dementia, the number of cases is expected to increase in the future due to the aging of the population 1. As dementia progressively leads to complete loss of autonomy requiring a permanent support, this disease represents a tremendous social and economic cost for our societies 2. Apart from genetic and socio-demographic factors such as gender and educational level, some modifiable factors such as vascular risk factors 3 or drugs consumption 4 are suspected to be associated with the risk of dementia. Among them, several studies have shown a higher risk of dementia among benzodiazepine (BZD) users 5-13. While conflicting results were recently published 14,15 , these findings were confirmed in several meta-analyses 16-18 and Billioti et al. 19 demonstrated the plausibility of a causal relationship. BZD are mainly used as anxiolytic and hypnotic with a recommended duration of treatment of less than 4 weeks in many countries. In France, although the maximum recommended duration of prescription is 4 weeks as hypnotic and 12 weeks as anxiolytics, the duration of use exceeds 3 months for more than 50% of patients. Chronic use of BZD is a major public health concern in most developped countries 20-22 , especially in the older adults who are more likely to have side effects 23 owing to polymedication and physiological changes with aging. Recommendations against chronic use of BZD are regularly published without any clear impact on the consumption, while applying the current recommendations could dramatically reduce this use. Quantifying the possible impact of such a reduction on the future burden of dementia could...

show abstract

Impact of intervention targeting risk factors on chronic disease burden

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France

Projections of prevalence, lifetime risk, and life expectancy of Parkinson's disease (2010‐2030) in France

Computing Individual Risks Based on Family History in Genetic Disease in the Presence of Competing Risks

Impact of benzodiazepine consumption reduction on future burden of dementia

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About